Pacers vs Celtics Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/21/25

J.A. Cavalier
Jan 21
2 min read

NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS

Pacers vs Celtics Free Pick

Tonight’s Eastern Conference matchup at TD Garden shapes up as a clear mismatch, as the Boston Celtics host the Indiana Pacers in a game defined by talent disparity and efficiency. Boston enters at 26–16 and firmly in control of the top tier of the conference, while Indiana, sitting at 10–34, continues to struggle through a difficult season—especially away from home.

Oddsmakers have installed the Celtics as heavy home favorites in the -10.5 to -11.0 range, and the analytics support that position. Boston’s offense ranks among the league’s elite in efficiency, consistently generating high-quality looks through spacing, ball movement, and shot creation. Indiana’s defense, on the other hand, has been one of the league’s most vulnerable units, particularly on the road, where breakdowns in coverage and transition defense have led to extended runs by opponents.

If Boston dictates tempo early, this game has the potential to tilt quickly. The Celtics’ ability to stretch the floor and capitalize on defensive mistakes aligns perfectly against a Pacers team that has struggled to contain efficient offenses all season, setting the stage for a controlled, one-sided performance in front of the home crowd.

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FREE PICK Under 226.5

The Under is the play because Boston controls pace like it’s a hostage situation. They rank bottom three in tempo, top five in Defensive Rating, and they turn games into slow, miserable halfcourt grinds. Indiana’s 10–34 for a reason—inefficient offense, bad road splits, and they crumble when teams take away transition. The total’s sitting around 226.5, which tells me the public sees green jerseys and thinks points, but sharps see structure and hit the Under. This isn’t a shootout, it’s a slowdown—and if you’re betting the over, you’re betting against Boston’s entire personality.