Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 7/31/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 7/31/26

BOSTON @ LA DODGERS (LAD -120, 8.5)

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RED SOX @ DODGERS 7/31/26

The Red Sox and Dodgers meet tonight at Dodger Stadium for a high-stakes interleague clash. Boston enters this series on a historic tear, having won 25 of their last 30 games, while the Dodgers continue to hold the best record in baseball at 69-40. Tonight’s matchup features a fascinating pitching duel between southpaw Ranger Suárez and right-hander Edgardo Henriquez.

The Dodgers are the definitive play tonight at home. While Boston has been the hottest team in baseball over the last month, the Dodgers' dominance at Chavez Ravine and their specific success against left-handed pitching make them the superior side. Los Angeles is 19-12 this season when facing a left-handed starter, and they draw Ranger Suárez tonight.

THE MATCHUP

Suárez has been solid with a 3.02 ERA, but he faces a Dodgers lineup that is built to punish southpaws. Current Dodgers hitters have a collective .317 batting average and a .554 slugging percentage against Suárez in 110 career plate appearances. Mookie Betts has been particularly lethal, posting a 1.433 OPS with two home runs in just 14 appearances against him. Conversely, the Red Sox are starting reliever Edgardo Henriquez, who carries a 2.79 ERA and has shown elite swing-and-miss stuff with a 9.0 K/9. He will likely only pitch an inning as the Dodgers go with a bullpen game. 

The Dodgers' lineup depth, led by Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, creates a relentless pressure that often breaks pitchers. The Dodgers lead the league with a +156 run differential and have won 69 games for a reason. They are 33-20 at home this season. While Boston is a respectable 32-22 on the road, the Dodgers' ability to generate early leads—averaging 5.1 runs per game—gives them the edge. Sharp indicators suggest that any line near -120 for the league's best record at home is a value spot. And don’t forget, this line opened at -106.

BETTING THE GAME TOTAL

This matchup features two of the most productive offenses in the majors playing in a park that currently ranks 9th in the league for overall run production (Park Factor: 101). Specifically, Dodger Stadium is a haven for home runs, with a 126 HR factor that is 26% above league average.

Both bullpens have shown signs of fatigue and inconsistency recently. The Dodgers' relief corps has struggled with a 6.54 FIP over the last week, while Boston's bullpen has also let games slip away in isolated spots. With the wind expected to be blowing out and temperatures in the 80s, the ball should carry well. Boston has shown they can put up double-digit runs at any time, and the Dodgers' lineup is MLB’s 3rd-best scoring team averaging 5.16 runs per game. 

The historical head-to-head data shows that 6 of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs have gone Over the total. Boston's offense has been "torrid," as described by recent reports, and they face a Dodgers bullpen that is missing key pieces like Brusdar Graterol and Blake Treinen. Expect a high-scoring affair where both teams trade blows early.

TOP PLAYER PROPS

Freddie Freeman is the model of consistency and matches up perfectly against Ranger Suárez tonight. Freeman has a career .333 batting average against Suárez and has been on an absolute tear recently. In his last 5 games, he’s recorded at least one hit in all five. He’s gone Over 0.5 Hits in 9 of his last 10 games and 72.4% of games this season. 

Freeman’s ability to stay inside the ball makes him a nightmare for left-handed pitchers who rely on movement. He has recorded 6 hits in 21 career plate appearances against Suárez. Given his current form—averaging nearly two hits per game over his last five—this is one of the safest props on the board.

Shohei Ohtani "loves L.A.," as the news reports suggest, leading the team in home runs and OPS at Dodger Stadium. He faces a Red Sox pitching staff that will have to navigate his elite power and speed.

Simply taking Ohtani to go Over 0.5 Hits is an easy parlay piece. He’s gone Over this number in 8 of his last 10 and has a hit in 69.4% of games this season. 

In 3 games against Boston in 2025, he hit the over in 100% of them, averaging 1.33 hits. Ohtani is the engine of the Dodgers' offense. He has been "lights out" recently, and his ability to hit for both power and average makes him a threat in every plate appearance. He has a .990 OPS at home this season and has historically performed well against the Red Sox. Even if the Red Sox try to pitch around him, his speed allows him to turn infield grounders into hits.

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FREE PICK: DODGERS ML

The initial reaction here is to back the red-hot team (Boston) with the better starting pitcher (Ranger Suarez), but you have to remember this is the Dodgers we’re talking about…at home…with a better lineup. And the Dodgers bullpen is pretty solid. They rank in the top-10 in bullpen ERA (3.96) and tonight’s starter, Edgardo Henriquez, has really strong numbers. He’ll probably only pitch an inning, but he’s a guy who has a 25 percent K rate and a 2.79 ERA. He doesn’t give up hard contact (29% HH Rate) and when he does he keeps it on the ground (51% GB rate). Suarez is 3-2 with a 3.64 ERA against the Dodgers and he’s got decent numbers against current LA hitters. There a few, however, that have had success against him: Freeman (.375, .968 OPS, 16 AB), Rojas (20 AB, .300), and Betts (.400, 1.433 OPS, 2 HR, 10 AB). LA has won 6 of its last 8 games and 7 of the last 10 when they’ve faced Boston. 

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