Mavericks vs Knicks Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/19/25

J.A. Cavalier
15 hours ago
2 min read

NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS

Mavericks vs Knicks Free Pick

The Dallas Mavericks head into Madison Square Garden tonight for a tough cross-conference matchup against the New York Knicks, and this game is shaping up to be far more about who’s missing than who’s playing.

On paper, the Knicks already hold the edge with a 25–17 record compared to Dallas’ 17–26 mark. Once you factor in the injury report, the gap widens dramatically—and so does the betting opportunity.

Dallas comes into this matchup severely short-handed. The Mavericks will be without Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, P.J. Washington, and D’Angelo Russell. That’s not just a few role players—that’s the heart of their rotation.

The most damaging loss is in the frontcourt. With both Lively and Gafford sidelined, Dallas has no true rim protection and will be forced to lean heavily on small-ball lineups. That puts enormous pressure on their remaining guards to create offense while also asking undersized defenders to survive on the glass.

Simply put, this is not a roster built to handle a physical road game at MSG.

New York isn’t completely healthy either. Jalen Brunson is out, which removes their primary shot creator and late-game closer. Josh Hart is listed as day-to-day, though if he plays, his rebounding and energy could be a major factor.

Even without Brunson, the Knicks remain dangerous thanks to their depth and offensive efficiency. They rank third in the NBA in offensive rating and are one of the league’s most consistent three-point shooting teams. Playing at home, with a deeper and more stable rotation, New York still holds a significant advantage.

The analytics back up what the injury report suggests. The Knicks boast a top-three offense and a strong positive net rating, while Dallas sits near the bottom of the league offensively. Although the Mavericks rank well defensively overall, those numbers were built with healthy big men anchoring the paint—something they won’t have tonight.

New York’s ability to space the floor, rebound misses, and score efficiently should expose Dallas’ thin lineup over the course of four quarters.

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FREE PICK Under 231

The Under is the pro play because the names that make Overs go, aren’t on the floor. No Brunson, no Kyrie, and now you’ve got pace without punch, which is just guys running and missing. Dallas plays fast, but without finishers their efficiency falls off a cliff, and New York at the Garden is perfectly happy to turn this into a grind-it-out rock fight. This isn’t a vibes Under, it’s an efficiency Under — worse shot quality, longer possessions, and a lot of late-clock prayers. Savage truth? Fast teams without stars don’t score more, they just miss faster. The number’s inflated for players who aren’t playing, and 231 bleeds out quietly in the fourth.