Spurs vs Jazz Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/19/25

J.A. Cavalier
14 hours ago
2 min read

NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS

Spurs vs Jazz Free Pick

The San Antonio Spurs return home as heavy favorites, and this matchup with the Utah Jazz shapes up as one of the most one-sided games on the slate. Oddsmakers have installed the Spurs as double-digit favorites, and the underlying numbers suggest that even a massive spread may not fully capture the gap between these two teams.

San Antonio has quietly established itself as one of the league’s most efficient and disciplined teams. With a top-five net rating, the Spurs consistently win the possession battle on both ends of the floor. Utah, on the other hand, has struggled badly, sitting near the bottom of the league in net rating and defensive efficiency.

The Jazz’s recent form only adds to the concern. Over their last five games, Utah has been allowing more than 130 points per night, a troubling trend as they face a Spurs offense that ranks inside the top ten in efficiency. With De’Aaron Fox pushing the pace when opportunities arise and Victor Wembanyama anchoring the offense and defense, San Antonio is well-equipped to exploit a Utah defense that ranks last in halfcourt points allowed.

At first glance, Utah’s fast pace might suggest a high-scoring game. The Jazz rank among the league’s fastest teams, but San Antonio has shown an ability to impose its preferred style. The Spurs are elite at forcing opponents into halfcourt sets, limiting transition opportunities and turning games into controlled, methodical battles.

Defensively, San Antonio ranks near the top of the league in points per possession allowed, making it difficult for struggling offenses to find easy scoring chances. Utah’s inefficiency on both ends of the floor makes it unlikely they can keep pace, even if the tempo spikes early.

Do you want more NBA free picks from J.A. Cavalier?!

FREE PICK Under 241.5

Under is the pro side because this number is built on Utah’s pace, not San Antonio’s reality. The Jazz want to run, but the Spurs force games into the halfcourt at an elite rate, killing transition and turning possessions into slow, contested work. From a sharp gambler’s view, that’s death for a monster total. Utah’s defense gives up points, sure, but blowouts don’t cash Overs — they cash Unders. Pace doesn’t matter if one team refuses to sprint. San Antonio controls tempo, efficiency drops, and 241.5 is asking for a track meet the Spurs won’t show up to.