Pacers vs 76ers Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/19/25

J.A. Cavalier
14 hours ago
2 min read

NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS

Pacers vs 76ers Free Pick

The Indiana Pacers head to Xfinity Mobile Arena tonight for an Eastern Conference matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers, and this one shapes up as a classic case of elite defense meeting an inefficient offense.

Philadelphia enters the game at 22–18 and firmly in the playoff picture, while Indiana has struggled mightily, managing just 10 wins through the first half of the season. Oddsmakers have made the 76ers clear favorites, and when you dig into the analytics, the reasoning becomes obvious.

The 76ers have built their identity on the defensive end, and the numbers back it up. Philadelphia ranks 11th in Defensive Rating and improves even further in advanced metrics, sitting 10th in Expected Defensive Rating. Their rim protection is among the best in the league, as they rank second in blocks per game, consistently deterring drives and forcing opponents into difficult shots.

That defensive profile is especially dangerous for an Indiana team that has struggled to find rhythm offensively. In their most recent game, the Pacers shot just 38.4 percent from the field, continuing a season-long trend of inconsistency.

Philadelphia excels at limiting efficiency, ranking sixth in effective field goal percentage allowed. They are particularly strong on the perimeter, holding opponents to the second-lowest three-point percentage in the NBA. Against a Pacers team that already struggles to convert clean looks, this matchup is a steep uphill climb.

Indiana’s issues go beyond one bad shooting night. Their offensive inefficiency has been a recurring theme, and now they face a disciplined defense that thrives in halfcourt situations. Philadelphia forces teams to slow down, rotate the ball, and settle for contested attempts—exactly the type of game that exposes Indiana’s weaknesses.

With the 76ers controlling the pace and protecting the rim, Indiana will need an outlier shooting performance just to stay competitive.

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My Pick Under 229.5

The Under is the professional side because this matchup kills pace and shot quality. Philly plays controlled, half-court basketball and defends like a team that knows how to bleed a clock, not chase points. Indiana’s recent shooting slump only makes it worse, especially since Philadelphia excels at taking away non-corner threes — the exact shots Indy lives on. This total is inflated by reputation, not matchup. Good defenses don’t run with you, they sit on your chest. The game slows, looks get ugly, and 229.5 slips under while Over bettors wait on points that never come.