Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CFB Picks, CFB Free Picks, CFB Predictions 11/12/25
- rbowe7447
- 4 days ago
- 2 min read
NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ UMASS (NIU -11.5, 44)
NIU -11.5
This is crazy, right? These are two of the worst teams in the FBS. They are definitely two of the worst offenses. UMass is dead last in college football in scoring. The Minutemen average just 11.3 points per game.
Northern Illinois isn't much better. The Huskies rank just ahead of UMass at 135th in scoring, putting up a whopping 12.2 points per game. So, how in the world is Northern Illinois favored by 11.5 points against UMass? And, it's on the road!
I know. It doesn't make a lot of sense to back NIU, but you can't trust UMass either. What you can trust are the numbers. These two teams played last year. NIU was a little better than their current 2-7, but they were 14-point home favorites against the Minutemen last year. The Huskies won that game by exactly 14 points, 34-20.
NIU has been favored just three times all season. One of those was on the road at Eastern Michigan earlier this season. The Huskies lost that game and they've lost all their road games.
On Oct. 25, NIU was favored by 6.5 against Ball State. The Huskies won 21-7. Ball State is a similar opponent in that their offense also struggles. So, the game script should play out like this.
NIU can run the football. They average around 160 yards per game. UMass doesn't really stop anyone, especially on third down. This should be a slow-paced game where NIU controls the ball and takes advantage of a very poor UMass defense.
NIU's team total is right around 27. UMass has only scored more than 13 points once against FBS competition. Don't expect much out of the Minutemen offense. Their team total is set right around 14. It's crazy, but the numbers do point to the Huskies getting the win and the cover.
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