Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CFB Picks, CFB Free Picks, CFB Predictions 9/11/26 *NEVER FORGET*
RUTGERS @ BOSTON COLLEGE (BC -3, 53.5)
CFB ODDS, CFB PREDICTIONS, CFB PREVIEWS
COACH RICK CFB FREE PICKS
SCARLET KNIGHTS @ EAGLES 9/11/26
🇺🇲 NEVER FORGET 🇺🇲
The Friday night card gives us a game between two teams that couldn't have started the season much worse. Rutgers got embarrassed by UMass as a 29.5-point favorite, and Boston College got run out by Cincinnati 34-15. Someone has to win this one, and the market has settled on the Eagles as a short home favorite.
WHO WINS: BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES
The Eagles are the right side of this game, and the best price is -147 on Polymarket — meaning the market still only gives BC roughly a 59.5% chance to win outright. That's a fair number for a home favorite facing a Rutgers team in complete disarray.
The reason to be on BC starts with Rutgers' Week 1 meltdown, and it was ugly. The Scarlet Knights were embarrassed 37-21 by UMass as a 29.5-point favorite — one of the worst losses of the opening weekend. Quarterback Dylan Lonergan completed just 55% of his passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions, and the program went viral for the wrong reason when a pre-planned fireworks show celebrating a win launched after a loss. Head coach Greg Schiano is now firmly on the hot seat, and a road trip to Chestnut Hill is a brutal spot to steady a ship that's already taking on water.
The quarterback situation makes it worse. Lonergan suffered an injury in the UMass loss and will be replaced by A.J. Surace, who came in and threw a touchdown in relief last week. That's a backup making his first career start on the road in a hostile environment — not the recipe for a bounce-back performance.
Boston College has its own issues — the Eagles went 2-10 last season and opened 2026 with that 34-15 loss to Cincinnati — but there's a real emotional edge here. This is the Red Bandanna game, played on September 11 to honor Welles Crowther, the BC grad who sacrificed himself leading survivors to safety in the South Tower. It's the first time the game falls on the actual anniversary, and the Eagles will be playing with heavy hearts in their home opener. That's the kind of spot where a team rallies.
CONSIDER THE MONEYLINE
The best price on the board is -147 on Polymarket, and the market has held BC steady at -3.5 to -4.0 on the spread all day. The Eagles opened as a modest favorite and nothing has moved off that number, which tells you the sharps aren't buying the Rutgers bounce-back narrative. With Lonergan out and Surace making his first start, the quarterback edge tilts clearly to BC's Mason McKenzie, who threw for 223 yards and led the team with 78 rushing yards against Cincinnati.
VALUE ON RUTGERS AT +3.5
If you'd rather back the dog, the best number on the board is Rutgers +3.5. The contrarian case is simple: no team is as bad as its worst game, and Rutgers was a slim favorite in this matchup before Week 1. Boston College also got trounced by a questionable Cincinnati team, so the gap between these two is smaller than the market suggests.Â
Interesting stat here too is that teams favored in Week 1 and then come back in Week 2 as an underdog are 91-64 SU over the last five seasons. That’s a 59 percent win rate that can’t be ignored.
BETTING THE TOTAL
Under 53.5Â
This is a pure line-shopping play. The consensus total sits at 53.5, with the major books clustered there — FanDuel -110, DraftKings -110, Caesars -107, Pinnacle -109. But Kalshi hangs the Under at 53.5 paying +104, which means you're getting plus money on the same number the rest of the market is charging juice for. That's the definition of taking the better of the number.
The game context supports a lower-scoring affair. Both teams are starting backup or inexperienced quarterbacks, and Rutgers' offense managed just 1.2 yards per carry against a UMass defense that allowed over five yards a carry last season. When two shaky offenses meet two defenses that were among the worst in the nation last year, the script tends to be sloppy and low-scoring.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Boston College is the right side of this game. Rutgers is reeling — a 29.5-point favorite that lost to UMass, now starting a backup quarterback on the road — and the Eagles get a home opener on an emotionally charged Red Bandanna night. My confidence is concentrated in the BC moneyline at -147, with the Under 53.5 at Kalshi as the best line-shopping play on the board. If you want the contrarian side, Rutgers +3.0 at Caesars is the best number available.
Get free CFB Picks and CFB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 CFB schedule from the YLose.com crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert CFB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the CFB betting community the best CFB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best CFB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.
FREE PICK: (1H) UNDER 24.5Â
Pick up my Max Bet $49 If we don't cash the Max Bet, you'll get one MONTH of all of my picks for FREE!
Coach Rick's Max Bet $49
Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.
