Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CFB Picks, CFB Free Picks, CFB Predictions 9/7/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CFB Picks, CFB Free Picks, CFB Predictions 9/7/26

SMU @ FLORIDA STATE (SMU -2.5, 54.5)

CFB ODDS, CFB PREDICTIONS, CFB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CFB FREE PICKS

MUSTANGS @ SEMINOLES 9/7/26

This is the marquee Labor Day nightcap, and it's a fascinating spot: a ranked road favorite in SMU traveling to a desperate Florida State program playing for Mike Norvell's job. The market has moved exactly where the sharp money should be, and the underlying numbers tell a clear story. Let me break down who wins and where the value sits.

THE CASE FOR SMU

The sharp model has the Mustangs at a 56.47% win probability, and the market has steamed decisively in their favor — the consensus opened around -122 and is now around -140, with DraftKings holding firm at -148 and BetMGM at -145. That's a steady, consistent line move, and it's telling you exactly where the sharp money has landed.

The quarterback gap is the whole story. Kevin Jennings returns for his third year as SMU's starter, coming off a 2025 season where he threw for 3,641 yards and 26 touchdowns. He's produced 59 total touchdowns across the past two seasons and owns the second-most passing yards (7,709) and fourth-most passing TDs (55) in school history. His 19 career wins were tied for third-most by a returning Power 4 quarterback. He's the ACC Preseason Player of the Year runner-up and a legitimate Heisman dark horse at +8000.

Opposite him, Florida State's Ashton Daniels is a turnover machine. The Auburn transfer has thrown 23 career interceptions compared to just 25 touchdown passes — a nearly 1:1 ratio that's catastrophic for a quarterback facing a defense like SMU's. He was pedestrian in the opener against New Mexico State, throwing for 202 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and he was pressured 10 times in 32 dropbacks. His mistakes could be costly against a Mustangs defense that ranked near the top of the nation in takeaways last season.

The situational edge compounds the talent gap. SMU is playing its first game of the season, and there's a decade-long trend here: teams in Week 1 playing their first game have covered the spread at a 58% clip against teams that played in Week 0. Florida State already showed its hand in a sluggish 34-17 win over New Mexico State — a game where they came nowhere near covering as 31.5-point favorites. The Seminoles missed nine tackles, allowed 272 passing yards, and took just two sacks on 12 pressures. That's a defense with real issues, and Jennings should find plenty of open spaces against a secondary that allowed explosives to the Aggies.

The head-to-head history backs the favorite. SMU leads the all-time series 1-0, winning 42-16 in Dallas in 2024 — the first battle as ACC rivals. The Mustangs easily covered as 6.5-point favorites that day while Jennings threw for three scores. That was a different SMU team, too — this year's version is deeper, more experienced, and genuinely contending for an ACC title.

The context is everything. Florida State is 7-18 in its last 25 games since the 2023 ACC Championship Game collapse, with just three ACC victories. Norvell is the clear betting favorite to be the first power conference head coach fired this season, and this is the start of an absolutely brutal stretch — SMU, Alabama, Virginia, Louisville, Miami and Clemson in six of the next seven games. The Seminoles are 1-5 SU in their past six vs. ranked foes, and 1-5 ATS in their past six as dogs. Meanwhile, SMU has taken to the ACC well, going 14-2 in league play since joining in 2024 — tied for the fourth-best conference record in the FBS over that span.

SMU TREND DATA

The logic is simple: better quarterback, better defense, better situation. Jennings is a proven winner with 19 career wins and a stable 3% turnover-worthy play rate year over year. Daniels has thrown 23 career interceptions against just 25 touchdowns — he's a liability with the ball in his hands. SMU's "Club Takeaway" secondary features Marcellus Barnes Jr., who was a shutdown corner in 2025, executing nine forced incompletions while allowing just 23 of 43 targets to record a reception.

The trend data is overwhelming. SMU covered the spread in all nine of its wins last year. The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their past five September road games, which is a concern — but that's a small sample against a team that's clearly better than the one that posted those numbers. Florida State is 1-5 ATS in its past six as dogs, and the Seminoles' Week 0 performance — missing nine tackles, allowing 272 passing yards, taking just two sacks on 12 pressures — suggests they're not ready for this step up in competition.

The weather adds another layer. There's a 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms in Tallahassee this evening, with field conditions potentially an issue. That typically favors the more physical, more disciplined team — and SMU's defense, which ranked in the top 20 against the run last season, fits that profile better than FSU's leaky secondary.

GAME TOTAL ANALYSIS

Th Under is the contrarian play, and it's the one the sharp model actually supports. The sharp picks table shows the Under at 50.43% win probability — a slight lean, but the situational factors push it further. The consensus total has held steady at 54.5, but the sharp money is on the Under.

The trends are overwhelming. The Under hit in FSU's Week 0 game, and the total hasn't been reached in six of the team's last seven games dating back to last year. SMU also took part in lower-scoring games in 2025, as the Under posted a 9-4 record for the Mustangs. Even more trends back the Under hitting on Monday: it's 7-3 over SMU's last 10 games as a favorite, and the Under was 6-2 last year for the Seminoles in ACC contests.

The weather is the wild card. Scattered thunderstorms with a 50% chance of rain in Tallahassee this evening, with field conditions potentially an issue. Wet conditions typically suppress scoring — especially for a Florida State offense that's still finding its rhythm under a new quarterback. The Under hit in FSU's opener despite 17 combined points in the fourth quarter, including a TD for each team in the final 7:42.

The matchup dynamics support it. SMU's defense ranked in the top 20 against the run last season, and FSU's offense does most of its damage on the ground — Ousmane Kromah went for 115 yards on 14 carries in the opener. If SMU can slow the run game, Daniels will have to beat them through the air, and that's where the turnovers come. Meanwhile, FSU's defense allowed 272 passing yards to New Mexico State, but SMU's offense is more methodical than explosive — they averaged 32 points and 417 yards per game last season, but they're not a big-play unit.

TOP PLAYER PROPS

Kevin Jennings Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

The simulation models point to a 28-25 SMU victory, and Jennings is projected to throw for over 300 yards against a Florida State secondary that allowed 272 passing yards to New Mexico State.

The matchup is tailor-made for a big passing day. FSU's starting defensive backs — Ashlynd Barker, Ja'Bril Rawls and CJ Richard Jr. — all allowed a 20-yard explosive to the Aggies' passing game. New Mexico State nearly eclipsed 300 passing yards against this secondary, and that was with a quarterback who's nowhere near Jennings' caliber. Jennings should find plenty of open spaces against a Florida State passing defense that's clearly vulnerable.

The supporting cast is elite. Jennings has reliable targets in WRs Jalen Cooper and Yamir Knight, plus new additions like Yannick Smith (East Carolina transfer) and tight ends Theo Melin Ohrstrom (Texas A&M) and Randy Pittman (Florida State). Kendrick Raphael comes over from Cal after rushing for 943 yards and 13 touchdowns last year, and versatile receiver Derrick McFall adds another dimension. This is the most complete offense Jennings has had at SMU.

The history backs it. In the 2024 meeting between these teams, Jennings threw for three touchdowns in SMU's 42-16 blowout win. He's facing a similar FSU defense — one that's struggled against the pass and can't generate consistent pressure. With the weather potentially limiting the run game, Jennings should be asked to carry the offense through the air.

THE CASE FOR FLORIDA STATE

This is the value side of the spread, and it's a legitimate play if you believe the game stays close. The simulation models project a 28-25 SMU victory — a three-point game that would see FSU cover +3.5. Some books had this line at 3.5 during the week and you can buy it up to FSU +3.5 at roughly -135.

The home-field advantage is real. Doak Campbell Stadium is one of the most hostile environments in college football, and FSU has already played a game this season — they've gotten the first-game butterflies out of the way. The Seminoles put up 34 points in the opener, which gives the offense some confidence heading into a big conference game. Daniels has an excellent run game to keep the pressure off him, and having the playmaker Duce Robinson seemingly always open downfield makes the QB's job easier.

The counterweight is the trend data. FSU is 1-5 ATS in its past six as dogs, and the Seminoles' Week 0 performance was concerning. But the +2.5 number gives you a full field goal of cushion — if this game comes down to a field goal, FSU covers. Kicker Gabe Panikowski converted both field goal attempts vs. New Mexico State and is now 17-for-17 career at the NCAA level.

The weather is the X-factor. If the rain comes down hard, it could slow SMU's passing attack and turn this into a grind-it-out game — which favors the home team with the better run game. FSU rushed for 217 yards in the opener, and if they can replicate that against an SMU defense that was fourth in run defense last season, this game stays close.

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