Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 9/7/26
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ST. LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO (SF -131, 7.5)
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CARDINALS @ GIANTS 9/7/26
Logan Webb's wheels have come off. Webb has failed to see the fourth inning in two of his last three starts, getting roughed up to the tune of 16 runs and 20 hits in just 10 2/3 innings over that stretch. His season ERA sits at 4.21 with a 1.16 WHIP — solid overall numbers, but the recent tape is alarming. He's 8-8 on the year and the Giants have lost three straight in his starts. His home splits are better (3.39 ERA at Oracle Park), but he's been trending the wrong direction at exactly the wrong time.
The Cardinals are in a playoff fight and playing their best baseball. St. Louis (72-72) just took two of three in Colorado, capped by a 10-8 win Sunday, and sits just four games behind Arizona for the final NL wild-card spot with 18 games left. This kicks off a stretch of 15 of 18 games against teams currently under .500 — a golden opportunity they can't afford to waste. The Cardinals have won four of the last six head-to-head meetings and are 7-3 in their last ten against San Francisco, outscoring them 4.9 to 4.3 on average.
The Giants are playing out the string. San Francisco (59-85) is 26 games under .500 and essentially eliminated. They return home after a 3-4 road trip, and while Rafael DeversRafael Devers has been on an absolute tear — six homers in seven games — one hot bat isn't enough to carry a team this far underwater. The Giants rank 26th in offense and 24th in defense per the advanced metrics.
The McGreevy factor is the wild card. Michael McGreevy (6-9, 3.97 ERA) has been better on the road (3.89 ERA away vs. 3.97 overall) and has won both career starts at Oracle Park. He's a Southern California native who seems to relish pitching in San Francisco. His 4.31 FIP suggests some regression risk, but he's been solid enough to keep the Cardinals in games — and against a Giants team that's been scuffling, that might be all St. Louis needs.
COULD WEBB BOUNCE BACK?
Logan Webb Over 17.5 Outs
This is a bounce-back spot for a pitcher who's been struggling. Webb has hit the over in 80% of his last 10 starts and 80% of his last 15, averaging 16.9 outs over his last 10 and 18.07 over his last 15. His projection sits at 17.67 outs — right at the line — but his home splits are the key: he's hit the over in 84.62% of his home starts this season, averaging 19.62 outs at Oracle Park.
The Cardinals' lineup is beatable. St. Louis ranks 24th in OPS (.702) and 22nd in wRC+ (96.26) — a below-average offense that Webb has historically handled. In his career against the current Cardinals roster, Webb has held them to a .257 batting average with a .282 wOBA across 37 plate appearances. He's struck out 11 of the 35 batters he's faced.
The recent struggles are real, but the context matters. Webb has been roughed up in his last three starts, but two of those were on the road. At home, he's a different pitcher — 3.39 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and a 2.65 FIP. The Giants need innings from their ace, and against a mediocre Cardinals lineup, this is the spot for Webb to right the ship.
BACK NATHAN CHURCH
Nathan Church Over 0.5 Hits
Church has been one of St. Louis's most consistent hitters. He's recorded a hit in 100% of his last 5 games, 90% of his last 10, and 80% of his last 15. His projection sits at 0.86 hits, and he's averaging 1.2 hits per game over his last 5 and 1.0 over his last 10.
The splits favor him tonight. Church is hitting .255 on the road this season compared to .243 overall, and he's hitting .251 against right-handed pitching — Webb is a righty. He's also been better against righties in his career, with a .251 average and a .246 xAVG in that split. His 78th percentile contact rate (81.1%) means he's putting the ball in play consistently.
The role matters. Church is hitting near the top of the Cardinals order, which means he's getting the most plate appearances on the team. Against a pitcher who's been struggling with command recently, Church's ability to make contact should give him multiple opportunities to reach base.
PLAY THOMAS SAGGESE OVER 0.5 HITS
Saggese has been on a tear recently. He's recorded a hit in 100% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10. His projection sits at 0.87 hits, and he's averaging 1.6 hits per game over his last 5 and 1.5 over his last 10.
The Webb matchup is favorable. In a small career sample against Webb, Saggese is 1-for-3 with a .294 wOBA. More importantly, he's been much better on the road this season — he's hitting .270 away from home with a .491 slugging percentage and a .423 xSLG. His 81st percentile slugging percentage (.448) and 79th percentile ISO (.188) suggest he's driving the ball with authority.
The recent form is undeniable. Saggese has been one of the Cardinals' hottest hitters over the last week, and he's hitting in a lineup that's fighting for a playoff spot. Against a pitcher who's been struggling, this is a strong play.
DON’T FORGET JOSHUA BAEZ
Joshua Báez Over 0.5 Hits
Báez has been red-hot at the plate. He's recorded a hit in 100% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10. His projection sits at 0.90 hits, and he's averaging 1.6 hits per game over his last 5 and 1.1 over his last 10.
The power numbers are eye-popping. Báez has a .871 OPS on the season — good for the 96th percentile in MLB — with a 133 wRC+ that ranks in the 94th percentile. He's been even better on the road, posting a .920 OPS and a 143.56 wRC+ away from home. His 96th percentile OPS and 94th percentile wRC+ suggest he's one of the most productive hitters in baseball right now.
The Webb matchup is the concern. In a small sample against Webb, Báez is 0-for-2 with a .000 wOBA. But his recent form — 100% hit rate over the last 5 games — suggests he's seeing the ball well enough to overcome that.
USE THIS AS A PARLAY PIECE
Leo Bernal Over 0.5 Hits
Bernal has been nearly automatic since joining the Cardinals. He's recorded a hit in 100% of his last 5 games and 100% of his 6 games this season. He's hitting .350 with a .959 OPS and a 167 wRC+ — elite production in a small sample.
The splits are remarkable. Bernal is hitting 1.000 against right-handed pitching in his limited sample (4 games), and he's been perfect on the road (100% hit rate in 6 road games). His projection sits at 0.99 hits, and he's averaging 1.4 hits per game over his last 5.
The sample size is the caveat. Bernal has only 6 games of MLB experience, so the 100% hit rate is a small-sample anomaly. But the Cardinals are clearly confident in him — he's hitting in the middle of the order — and against a struggling Webb, he should get opportunities.
BOTTOM LINE
The Cardinals win this game — they're the hotter team, they're fighting for a playoff spot, and they're facing a Giants starter who's been in free fall. The sharp model says San Francisco at 54.63%, but the market movement toward St. Louis and the recent head-to-head dominance (7-3 in the last 10) tell a different story. The real value, though, is on Rafael DeversRafael Devers — he's the hottest hitter in baseball and he owns McGreevy. Expect a competitive game, but the Cardinals' urgency and Webb's recent struggles should be the difference.
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