Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 6/12/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 6/12/26

SEATTLE @ WASHINGTON (SEA -148, 9)

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK MLB PREVIEWS

MARINERS @ NATIONALS 6/12/26

The core of this game comes down to the pitchers. Bryce Miller has been absolutely dominant to start 2026, posting a microscopic 1.33 ERA with 29 strikeouts over 27 innings. He's coming off three straight shutout outings, and the key here is that no one on the Nationals has ever faced him. That's a massive advantage for a pitcher with his stuff.

On the other side, Zack Littell has a 4.76 ERA and a 5.19 ERA at home. The Mariners' lineup has struggled against him, with a collective .133 batting average in 31 plate appearances. Littell has also pitched very well over the last month or so. Since May 1st, his ERA is a stellar 2.27 and he has won each of his last 5 starts.

BEST BETS

Backing Miller to go Over 4.5 Strikeouts might be the sharpest play on the board. Miller's strikeout stuff is elite, and he's facing a Nationals lineup that has never seen him before. That unfamiliarity is a huge edge for the pitcher. Washington strikes out an average of 8.28 times per game.

Miller has a 1.33 ERA and 29 Ks in 27 IP this season. He's been virtually unhittable. The Nationals have zero career plate appearances against Miller. No one in their lineup has a scouting report on him from the batter's box. This leads to a lot of uncomfortable at-bats and a lot of swing-and-miss. In his last start on June 6th against Detroit, he went 6 innings, allowed 0 runs, and punched out 9 batters. He's clearly capable of racking up strikeouts.

The Mariners are the better team and have the better pitcher, but the Nationals' offense is legit. They rank 2nd in MLB in runs per game (5.4) and have power threats like James Wood (18 HRs) and CJ Abrams (14 HRs). This game is likely to be close, and getting +1.5 runs of insurance on the home underdog is a smart play.

The Nationals' offense is real. They score 5.32 runs per game (3rd in MLB). They can put up crooked numbers in a hurry; however, they sometimes struggle at home. 

Seattle's bullpen has a save percentage of just 55.2% and has blown 13 of 29 save opportunities. If Miller exits with a lead, there's a real chance the Nats can get to the Mariners bullpen. The Mariners are heavy favorites (-150), but the Nationals have been a profitable underdog play all year (32-28 as a dog). The one issue is that the Nats are just 12-20 at home. 

BEST PLAYER PROPS

This is a brutal matchup for Julio Rodriguez. He has a long history of futility against Zack Littell, and the data is undeniable. In 7 career at-bats against Littell, Rodríguez has 0 hits and 4 strikeouts. That's a 57.1% strikeout rate in the matchup. Littell has completely owned him. Rodríguez is hitting .254 this season. 

He's not in peak form, making it even harder to overcome a pitcher who has his number. Over his last 20 games, he has recorded a hit in 65% of them. While that's a majority, the 0-for-7 history against Littell is a massive red flag that overrides the general trend.

While the Nationals' lineup is cold against Miller, Wood is the one guy who can break through. He's been their best hitter and has a history of success against Seattle. Wood is hitting .290 with 18 HRs and a .407 OBP. He's a legitimate star.

In 3 career games against the Mariners, Wood has a hit in 100% of them, averaging 1.33 hits per game. He sees them well. He has a 70% hit rate over his last 20 games and an 80% hit rate over his last 5. He's consistently getting on base. The price is steep, but Wood Over 0.5 Hits is a strong play at -200.

GAME TOTAL ANALYSIS

Tonight’s total is set at 9.5. The Mariners' offense is mediocre (20th in runs), but the Nationals' pitching is a disaster (28th in ERA). Miller should keep the Nats in check, but Littell could get shelled. The Mariners have gone Over in 6 of their last 9 games. I lean Over 9.5, but the pitching mismatch on one side makes it a lower-confidence play than the player props.

The Over has cashed in 6 of Seattle’s last 9 games. Nationals Park is an Over ballpark. This season, the Over/Under record there is 21-9-2. For the season, the Nats are the top Over team in baseball at 42-25-2.

Get free MLB Picks and MLB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 MLB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert MLB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the MLB betting community the best MLB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best MLB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.

FREE PICK:  F5 UNDER 5.5

It’s a huge number and the price is -139, but with these two pitchers, it’s the play. Miller hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his starts. He’s got a 29.3 percent K rate and has been virtually unhittable so far this season. Washington does average 2.9 runs in the F5, but the Mariners are average at 2.5. These are two very capable offenses, but combined they still don’t average 5.5 runs in the F5. The Nats have actually gone Under 5.5 in the F5 in 9 of their last 10 games. Zack Littell has won each of his last 5 starts and has an ERA of 2.27 since May 1.

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