Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 6/17/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 6/17/26

PITTSBURGH @ ATHLETICS (PIT -126, 10)

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK MLB PREVIEWS

PIRATES @ ATHLETICS 6/17/26

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Athletics continue their series tonight at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. After the Pirates edged out a 6-5 victory yesterday, tonight’s matchup features a fascinating contrast on the mound between a rising young arm and a veteran returning from injury.

The Pirates are favored on the road, and the statistical mismatch between the two starting pitchers makes them the definitive side to back in this contest. Pittsburgh starts Braxton Ashcraft (5-3, 3.30 ERA). Ashcraft has been a model of consistency, posting a 1.10 WHIP and a 26% strikeout rate over 14 starts. His advanced metrics are even more impressive, with a .275 xwOBA and a low 5.7% barrel rate allowed. 

Conversely, the Athletics turn to Aaron Civale (5-2, 4.20 ERA), who is returning from right shoulder tendinitis. Civale’s underlying numbers are alarming: a 5.47 FIP, a 1.47 WHIP, and a massive 1.94 HR/9. In his last two starts before the IL, he surrendered 12 earned runs and six homers, with his fastball velocity dipping significantly.

The Pirates' lineup is perfectly constructed to exploit Civale’s weaknesses. With Spencer Horwitz, Nathaniel Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, and Ryan O'Hearn, Pittsburgh can throw four left-handed or switch-hitting bats at Civale immediately. The Pirates own a .759 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and Civale’s fly-ball-heavy profile (29% ground-ball rate) is a dangerous fit against this power-hitting group in a hitter-friendly venue.

Pittsburgh has won 7 of the 11 games Ashcraft has started as a moneyline favorite. While the head-to-head series is tied 1-1 in 2026, the current form of the two starters heavily tilts the scales toward the visitors.

ANOTHER OVER AT SUTTER HEALTH PARK

While Ashcraft is a strong starter, several factors point toward a high-scoring affair that clears the double-digit total. Civale’s propensity for giving up home runs (1.9 HR/9) combined with a fatigued Athletics bullpen (4.57 ERA, 21st in MLB) creates a high ceiling for the Pirates' offense. Even if Ashcraft pitches well, he typically works 5-6 innings, leaving the final third of the game to a Pirates bullpen that has struggled with consistency recently.

Both teams are swinging hot bats. Pittsburgh is hitting .256 with a .420 slugging percentage over their last 27 games. The Athletics have been even better, hitting .251 with a .439 slugging percentage over their last 28. Oakland has been an "Over machine" at home, going 21-12-2 to the Over in home contests this season.

Pittsburgh is 17-9-1 to the Over in their last 27 games. When two teams with robust Over trends meet a struggling starter and two tired bullpens, the scoreboard tends to stay busy.

TOP PLAYER PROP BETS

Bryan Reynolds is the engine of the Pirates' offense and has a fantastic historical track record against Aaron Civale. Reynolds has been nearly automatic, hitting this Over in 100% of his last 15 games. Over his last 5 games, he is averaging a massive 2.2 Hits + Walks. Reynolds has faced Civale 21 times in his career, recording 5 hits and 2 home runs. He cleared this line easily in yesterday's matchup (4.0 mean) and has an 87.14% hit rate on the season.

Zack Gelof gave us a free pick win last night and is currently riding a 20-game hitting streak as he has become the most dangerous bat in the Athletics' lineup. Gelof has hit the Over 0.5 Hits in 100% of his last 15 games and 95% of his last 20. He is averaging 1.8 hits per game over his last 5 outings.

Gelof went 3-for-4 in yesterday's game against Pittsburgh. While Ashcraft is a tough matchup, Gelof’s current rhythm makes him a strong candidate to extend his streak, especially considering he has hit this over in 73.3% of his road/neutral site games.

A’s rookie Nick Kurtz has been a statistical standout, providing elite power and plate discipline since his call-up. Kurtz has hit the Over 0.5 Hits + Walks in each of his last 15 games and 92.96% of his games this season. He is averaging 2.0 Hits + Walks over his last 5 games.

Kurtz boasts a .429 wOBA and a 94.2 mph average exit velocity. His 18.2% barrel rate suggests that even when he isn't walking, he is making extremely loud contact. He cleared this line with 2.0 Hits + Walks in yesterday's series opener.

Get free MLB Picks and MLB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 MLB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert MLB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the MLB betting community the best MLB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best MLB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.

FREE PICK: PIRATES F5 ML

This is simply a fade of Aaron Civale. His expected numbers suggested that his time was coming soon…and it has come. He’s given up 9, 5, 6, and 6 hits over his last fouir starts. Over his last two, he’s allowed 6 home runs and 12 ER! He doesn’t strike out enough hitters (16% K rate) and his Hard Hit rate is 48%. The Pirates are a top-six scoring team (4.96) and should get to Civale. Civale is 8-3 on the F5 ML, but the A’s lost the F5 ML in each of his last two starts. Don’t forget, he’s returning from injury too and, typically, a first start back from injury doesn’t usually go that well. Pittsburgh is 35-29-10 on the F5 ML this season but lost both F5s this series. Behind Ashcraft, the Buccos get the F5 win.

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