Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 8/25/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 8/25/26

PITTSBURGH @ SAN DIEGO (SD -119, 7.5)

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

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PIRATES @ PADRES 8/25/26

The Pirates and Padres meet for the middle game of a three-game set at Petco Park, and the stakes couldn't be higher for both clubs. San Diego is clinging to the final NL Wild Card spot, two games up on Arizona, while Pittsburgh is 7.5 games back and running out of runway. 

The Padres just saw their eight-game home winning streak snapped in Monday's 12-inning heartbreaker, and they'll be desperate to bounce back. The pitching matchup is the marquee draw: Paul Skenes, the 2025 NL Cy Young winner who's been searching for his ace form all season, against Michael King, who's been quietly excellent for San Diego. 

THE BIG PICTURE

This is a fascinating matchup of two teams trending in opposite directions. San Diego has won 21 of its last 29 games and is 11-1 in its last 12 at home, while Pittsburgh has lost eight of its last nine on the road and just 11 of its last 31 overall. The Padres' offense has been carried by Fernando Tatis Jr.Fernando Tatis Jr., who's batting .304 with a .609 slugging percentage and 14 home runs over his last 47 games — including a 4-for-5, two-homer, four-RBI day Sunday against the Twins.

The pitching matchup is the separator. Skenes (9-11, 3.95 ERA) has been mortal lately — he hasn't gone more than five innings in any of his last four starts, his fastball velocity is down, and he has a 5.67 ERA since the start of July. He's allowed 17 earned runs in his last 23.2 innings (6.46 ERA over five starts), and the Pirates have gone 1-4 in those outings. King (8-9, 3.38 ERA) has been the steadier arm, and he owns a 2-0 record with a 2.65 ERA in three career appearances against Pittsburgh.

The sharp money is firmly on San Diego. The consensus gives the Padres a 53.08% win probability, and the market has moved from an open of -100 to a close of -116. The spread data shows the Padres at 53.03% against the spread at -1.5, and the total is trending Under at 52.6% on 7.0.

GAME LINE BET

San Diego Padres Moneyline

This is the sharpest play on the board, and the market agrees. The consensus sharp win percentage sits at 53.08% for San Diego, and the line has steamed from an open of -100 to -116 — a significant move in the Padres' direction. The reasoning is straightforward: the hotter team, at home, with the steadier starting pitcher, against a struggling ace who hasn't looked like himself in months.

King's track record against Pittsburgh is the story. He's 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in three career appearances against the Pirates, and he beat them on April 8 to polish off a series win. He's coming off a solid outing against the Mets — two runs, four hits, and two walks over 6.2 innings with four strikeouts — and he's been the model of consistency all season. The Padres are 7-9 when King starts and they're favored on the moneyline, but the underlying numbers suggest that record is due for positive regression.

Skenes' struggles are the other half of the equation. He owns a win in his only career outing against the Padres — one run over 6.1 innings in a 7-1 victory on April 7 — but that was a different pitcher. The 2026 version of Skenes has a 5.67 ERA since July 1, his velocity is down, and he's been limited to about 85 pitches in his last two starts. The Pirates have won just once in his last five outings, and they're 1-3 in his four starts this season when they're the underdog on the moneyline.

BETTING THE RUN LINE

San Diego Padres -1.5 Run Line 

If you believe the Padres win — and the sharp money says they do — the run line is where the value lives. San Diego has won 11 of its last 12 at home, and the average margin in those victories has been comfortable. The Padres have also won eight of their last 10 meetings against Pittsburgh, averaging 4.6 runs per game while holding the Pirates to 2.7.

The matchup sets up perfectly for a multi-run outcome. King's career dominance over this Pirates lineup — a 2.65 ERA in three appearances — suggests he should keep Pittsburgh's scuffling offense in check, while the Padres' offense, led by the red-hot Tatis, should find plenty of opportunities against a Skenes who's been hittable. The Pirates have lost eight of their last nine on the road, and their offense has been held to two runs or fewer in three of their last five contests.

The sharp money agrees with the direction here. The spread data shows San Diego at 53.03% against the spread at -1.5, and the line has moved from an open of +1.5 to a close of -1.5 across most books — a significant steam move in the Padres' direction. The Padres' 8-2 straight-up record over the last 10 meetings tells you they typically win these games, and the shape of the likely outcome — a steady starter against a struggling ace — points toward separation.

TOP PLAYER PROPS

Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Runs + RBIs

This is the highest-confidence prop on the slate, and the price reflects it. Tatis has recorded at least one run or RBI in 80% of his last five games and 80% of his last 10, averaging 2.2 and 2.0 combined events respectively. His season rate sits at 59.23%, but the recent form is trending well above that — and the 2.2 average over the last five is elite.

The matchup data is where this gets interesting. Tatis is 1-for-3 career against Skenes with a .333 batting average, and he's been the best hitter in baseball over the last two months. He's batting .304 with a .609 slugging percentage and 14 home runs in his last 47 games, and he's reached base at least twice in five straight games. Against a Skenes who's been hittable and limited to about 85 pitches, Tatis should get plenty of opportunities to score or drive in runs.

The home split is the only concern — Tatis has recorded a run or RBI in 53.85% of home games versus 59.23% overall — but that's still a better-than-even proposition, and the -135 price reflects the true probability. When the hottest hitter in baseball faces a struggling ace at home, you take the prop and move on.

Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Hits 

Cronenworth has been a hit-collecting machine lately. He's recorded at least one hit in 80% of his last 10 games and 80% of his last 15, averaging 1.2 and 1.07 hits per game respectively. His season hit rate sits at 53.75%, but the recent form is trending well above that — and the 1.2 average over the last 10 is strong.

The home split is the separator here. At Petco Park this season, Cronenworth is hitting at a 56.41% clip with 0.74 hits per game across 39 contests. Against the Pirates in 2026, he's recorded a hit in 75% of games with 1.25 hits per game — a tiny four-game sample, but the quality of contact is undeniable. He was the hero of Monday's game, tying it in the eighth with a two-out RBI single, and he's been one of the Padres' most consistent bats all season.

The matchup against Skenes is the one concern — Cronenworth is 0-for-2 career against him — but that's a tiny sample, and Skenes' overall profile doesn't suggest he's particularly tough on left-handed hitters. The -145 price is fair for a hitter in the middle of a hot streak against a struggling ace, and the recent form suggests the over is the right side.

Paul Skenes Over 1.5 Earned Runs 

This is the value play that jumps off the board. Skenes has allowed at least two earned runs in 80% of his last five games and 80% of his last 10, averaging 3.4 and 3.3 earned runs respectively. His season rate sits at 61.54%, but the recent form is trending well above that — and the 3.4 average over the last five is a massive red flag.

The matchup data is where this gets interesting. Skenes has a 5.67 ERA since the start of July, and he's allowed 17 earned runs in his last 23.2 innings — a 6.46 ERA over five starts. He hasn't gone more than five innings in any of his last four starts, and his fastball velocity is down. Against a Padres lineup that's been one of the best in baseball at home — they've won 11 of their last 12 at Petco — the over is the right side.

The career numbers against this Padres roster are the one concern — Skenes has held them to a .125 batting average in 26 career plate appearances — but that's a small sample, and the current version of Skenes is a different pitcher than the one who dominated them in April. The -135 price reflects the true probability, and the recent form suggests the over is the right side.

OTHER NEWS

The Padres are dealing with a depleted pitching staff — Joe Musgrove (60-day IL), Nick Pivetta (60-day IL), Lucas Giolito (60-day IL), Jason Adam (60-day IL), Ramón Laureano (60-day IL), and Bryan Hoeing (60-day IL) are all out — but the offense has been carrying the load. Tatis has been the catalyst, and the bullpen has been elite, with Adrian Morejon, Kyle Hart, and Yuki Matsui forming a formidable late-inning trio. The Padres went 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position Monday, which is a regression candidate — they're too good to stay that cold in clutch spots.

The Pirates are in worse shape. Konnor Griffin (60-day IL), Endy Rodríguez (10-day IL), Ryan O'Hearn (10-day IL), and Mitch Keller (60-day IL) are all out, and the offense has been scuffling — they rank 5th-worst in the league since the All-Star break. Skenes' struggles have been the biggest story, and there's real concern about whether he's dealing with an underlying injury. The Pirates have lost eight of their last nine on the road, and they're 7.5 games out of a playoff spot with a 4.9% chance of making the postseason.

The head-to-head history heavily favors San Diego. The Padres are 8-2 straight up over the last 10 meetings, with a 4-6 ATS record and a 5-5 Over/Under mark. They've averaged 4.6 runs per game in those contests while holding Pittsburgh to 2.7.

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