Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 8/28/26
- rbowe7447
- 11 hours ago
- 5 min read
PITTSBURGH @ ST. LOUIS (PIT -113, 7.5)
MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
COACH RICK MLB FREE PICKS
PIRATES @ CARDINALS 8/28/26
This is a fascinating spot because the market is genuinely split on a game featuring two of the most volatile pitchers in baseball. The Pirates opened as slight road favorites and the line has held steady around -114 to -118, while the Cardinals sit at +100 to +106. The sharp money is nearly dead even — Pittsburgh at 51.87% sharp win probability, St. Louis at 48.13% — and the total has drifted from 8 down to 7.5 at most books. Let's break down the best plays on the board.
PLAYER PROPS
Alec Burleson Over 0.5 Hits
Burleson owns the longest active hitting streak in the National League at 12 games, and the numbers behind it are staggering. He's hit the over on this line in 100% of his last 5 games and 100% of his last 10, with a season hit rate of 71.64% — that's elite consistency. His projection sits at 1.04 hits, comfortably above the 0.5 threshold, and he's been even better at home: a 66.67% hit rate in 69 home games with an average of 1.0 hits.
The matchup: Burleson is in the 99th percentile for hits this season (147 total) and the 96th percentile for batting average (.291). He's hitting .326 against right-handed pitching with a .965 OPS, and he's been scorching over the last 28 days with a 1.011 OPS. Against Pirates starter Jared Jones, he's 0-for-3 in his career, but that's a tiny sample — and Jones has surrendered 11 home runs in just 68 innings this season. Burleson's .297 xAVG (98th percentile) tells you he's been making elite contact all year, and against a pitcher who's been getting hit hard, he should get plenty of chances.
Bottom line: A 100% hit rate over the last 10 games, a 71.64% season hit rate, and the hottest bat in the National League — this is about as safe a hit prop as you'll find on the slate. The -220 price is steep, but the consistency justifies it. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jordan Walker Over 0.5 Hits
The Play: Take Walker to record at least one hit at BetMGM -190
Why it works: Walker has been a hit machine at home all season. He's hit the over on this line in 80% of his last 10 games and 75% of his last 20, with a season hit rate of 74.05% — that's the highest on this Cardinals roster. His projection sits at 0.96 hits, and he's been even better at Busch Stadium: a 69.12% hit rate in 68 home games with an average of 1.06 hits.
The matchup: Walker is in the 94th percentile for singles (88 total) and the 96th percentile for at-bats (506), meaning he gets more chances than almost anyone in this lineup. He's hitting .452 at home with a .479 xSLG, and he's 5-for-7 against the Pirates this season with a 71.43% hit rate in that sample. Against a Pirates starter in Jones who has a 4.76 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, Walker should get his looks.
Bottom line: A 75% hit rate over the last 20 games, a 69.12% home hit rate, and a proven track record against Pittsburgh — this is a strong play.
Quinn Mathews Over 1.5 Earned Runs
Why it works: Mathews has been a disaster in his first three major-league starts, and the numbers back it up. He's hit the over on this line in 66.67% of his starts (2 of 3), with a season hit rate of 66.67% and an average of 3.33 earned runs allowed. His projection sits at 2.24 earned runs, comfortably above the 1.5 threshold.
The matchup: Mathews carries a 6.43 ERA through 14 innings, and while his xERA of 3.12 suggests some bad luck, his most recent start was a full-on collapse — 7 earned runs on 10 hits in just 5 innings at Philadelphia. He's facing a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in runs scored (657) and 5th in OPS (.733) this season, with a top-5 batting average (.252) and on-base percentage (.329). The Pirates have been even better against left-handed pitching, ranking 4th-worst in wRC+ against LHP this season (85) but that's a season-long number — over the last month they've been the worst in baseball (72 wRC+). Still, the raw run-scoring ability is there, and Mathews' command issues (a 9.1% K-BB% that's well below average) should give Pittsburgh plenty of chances.
Bottom line: A 66.67% hit rate in his young career, a projection of 2.24 earned runs, and a Pirates offense that ranks top-5 in scoring — this is a solid play.
GAME TOTAL ANALYSIS
Under 7.5 Total Runs
The total has actually dropped from 8 to 7.5 at most books, so shop for the best number. This is the sharpest total on the board. The sharp picks table has the under at a 50.69% win probability, and the consensus line has moved from 8 down to 7.5 at most books — BetRivers opened at 8 and has dropped to 7.5, Pinnacle from 8 to 7.5, and FanDuel from 8 to 7.5. The market is telling you runs will be at a premium.
The pitching angle: Both starters have real upside despite their ERAs. Jones' 4.76 ERA is backed by a 3.68 xERA, 3.87 xFIP, and 3.75 SIERA — he's been unlucky, not bad. He also has a 10.2 K/9 and a 17.6% K-BB% that ranks among the best in baseball. Mathews' 6.43 ERA is backed by a 3.12 xERA and a 4.77 xFIP — his stuff is elite (104 Location+), and his last start in Philadelphia was the outlier, not the norm. He's also facing a Pirates offense that has been the worst in baseball against left-handed pitching over the last month (72 wRC+).
The context: Busch Stadium is a pitcher-friendly park — a 97 overall park factor with a 94 runs factor and a 76 home run factor, ranking 26th in MLB. Both bullpens are solid — Pittsburgh's 3.63 bullpen ERA and St. Louis's 3.96 — and the Cardinals have struck out in just 19% of their plate appearances against lefties this season, which is 3rd-best in MLB. The H2H record also supports it: the last 10 meetings between these teams have split 5-5 on the over/under, but the average combined score is just 8.6 runs.
Bottom line: Two starters with elite underlying metrics, a pitcher-friendly park, and two offenses that have struggled against the opposing handedness — at -112, the under is the play.
Get free MLB Picks and MLB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 MLB schedule from the YLose.com crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert MLB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the MLB betting community the best MLB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best MLB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.
FREE PICK: PIRATES ML
Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.
