Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 9/29/26
CHICAGO CUBS @ SAN DIEGO (SD -126, 7)
MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
COACH RICK MLB FREE PICKS
CUBS @ PADRES 9/29/26
This is the most compelling of the four Wild Card openers — a rematch of last year's series that the Cubs won at Wrigley, now shifted to pitcher-friendly Petco Park with a red-hot Padres team riding a 41-18 finish. The market has San Diego as a modest home favorite, and the sharps agree, but the margin is thinner than the price suggests.
🏆 WHO WINS: SAN DIEGO PADRES
The sharp picks table gives San Diego a 54.34% win probability to Chicago's 45.66% — a real but modest home lean. The moneyline reflects that: the Padres sit around -125 across the board, with the Cubs at +105 to +110
The single biggest reason is Michael King, who has been one of the most durable and effective starters in the National League. His season is genuinely strong — a 3.21 ERA (77th percentile), 185 innings (99th percentile), 18 quality starts (98th percentile), and a 1.18 WHIP (74th percentile). He's been even better at home, where his ERA drops to 2.74 with a 1.12 WHIP. He also owns this stage: in his most memorable career postseason start, he tossed seven shutout innings with 12 strikeouts in Game 1 of the 2024 Wild Card series against Atlanta.
The Cubs counter with Matthew Boyd, who has been solid but not spectacular — a 3.91 ERA (57th percentile) and 1.21 WHIP (70th percentile) across 126.2 innings. He's been much better on the road this season (2.86 away ERA), but he's also faced these Padres twice this year and given up eight earned runs across nine innings. The Padres know him well, and Manny Machado is 9-for-20 (.450) with a homer and four doubles against him in his career.
The lineup math tilts San Diego's way too. The Padres are 41-18 since July 24 and won 51 of 81 home games this season. Meanwhile, the Cubs' biggest offensive weapon — Pete Crow-Armstrong, who posted a 40-40 season with 45 homers and 41 steals — is walking into a park that suppresses power (Petco Park HR factor 105, but overall park factor 97 and runs factor 94). The Cubs led the majors with 850 runs (1st), but that advantage gets muted in this environment.
The pick: San Diego Padres to win. King at home, the bullpen edge, and the Petco environment all point the same direction.
GAME TOTAL ANALYSIS
Under 7.5 Total
This could be the best bet in the game. The total sits at 7.5, and the sharp picks table gives the Under a 51.71% share versus 48.29% for the Over — and the market movement tells the real story. The Under's price has moved from -105 at the open to -120, a clear sign of where the money is going.
The logic is clean: Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball (park factor 97 overall, 94 for runs, 96 for hits), and both starters are competent. King has a 2.74 home ERA and a 1.12 home WHIP, while Boyd has been excellent on the road this season with a 2.86 away ERA. The Padres' bullpen — led by Mason Miller — is one of the best in baseball, and the Cubs' power advantage gets neutralized in this park.
TOP PLAYER PROPS
Michael King Over 14.5 Pitcher Outs
This is the highest-conviction prop on the board. King's outs line is set at 14.5, and he has cleared it in each of his last five starts (averaging 19.2 outs), each of his last 10 (18.5 avg), and 93.33% of his last 15 (17.8 avg). At home, he's cleared it in 86.67% of his 15 home starts, averaging 17.73 outs.
The projection has him at 14.22 outs — right on the number — but his recent form (19.2 outs over the last five) suggests he clears it comfortably. The Padres need length from him in a three-game series, and his 185 innings (99th percentile) and 18 quality starts (98th percentile) show he's built for this workload.
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits
Merrill has been one of the most reliable contact bats in this Padres lineup, and the hit prop is the safest way to back him. He's recorded a hit in each of his last five games (averaging 2.0 hits), 90% of his last 10 (1.9 avg), and 70% of his last 20 (1.45 avg). At home, he's hit in 62.16% of his 74 home games (0.96 avg).
His season line is strong — .254 average (68th percentile), .270 xAVG (89th percentile), and 156 hits (94th percentile) — and he's facing a Cubs staff that will be leaning on Boyd. The -200 price reflects the high probability, and the hit-rate data backs it up.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Runs
Tatis has been the catalyst for the Padres' torrid finish — he hit 20 homers after the All-Star break after managing just five before it. The 0.5 runs line is a plus-money play, and he's cleared it in each of his last five games (1.0 runs), 90% of his last 10 (1.0 avg), and 75% of his last 20 (0.85 avg).
His season profile is elite — 96 runs (97th percentile), 38 steals (99th percentile), a .358 OBP (89th percentile), and a 130.7 wRC+ (93rd percentile). He's also been better at home with a .391 OBP and .864 OPS. Batting atop this lineup against Boyd, Tatis should get multiple chances to score.
Matthew Boyd Over 0.5 Walks Allowed
This is a high-probability play on Boyd's control. His walks line is set at 0.5, and he's cleared it in each of his last five starts (averaging 1.8 walks), each of his last 10 (1.9 avg), and 93.33% of his last 15 (1.8 avg). On the road, he's cleared it in 100% of his nine road starts, averaging 2.22 walks
The matchup supports it. The Cubs were right there with the Brewers for the league lead in walks and OBP this season, and Boyd's 3.11 BB/9 shows he's not a control artist. The -235 price reflects the high probability, and the hit-rate data backs it up.
Michael King Over 3.5 Hits Allowed
King's hits allowed line is set at 3.5, and he's cleared it in each of his last five starts (averaging 5.0 hits), 90% of his last 10 (5.1 avg), and 85% of his last 20 (4.95 avg). At home, he's cleared it in 73.33% of his 15 home starts, averaging 4.4 hits
The matchup supports it. The Cubs led the majors with 850 runs (1st) and posted a .767 OPS (1st) and .337 wOBA (1st) — this is a lineup that puts the ball in play. King's .220 average against (71st percentile) is solid, but the volume of this Cubs lineup should push him over 3.5 hits.
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
If you want a plus-money play on Merrill, the 1.5 H+R+RBI line is worth a look. He's cleared it in each of his last five games (3.6 avg), 90% of his last 10 (4.2 avg), and 70% of his last 20 (3.05 avg). At home, he's cleared it in 52.7% of his 74 home games (2.07 avg).
His .270 xAVG (89th percentile) and 156 hits (94th percentile) make him a strong contact performer, and with the Padres expected to score against Boyd, Merrill's spot in the lineup gives him plenty of RBI and run-scoring chances. The +102 price is generous for a hitter with this kind of recent form.
⚠️ INJURY NOTES
The Cubs are banged up on the mound — Edward Cabrera (bereavement), Justin Steele (60-day IL), Kevin Gausman (day-to-day), Shelby Miller (60-day IL), Trent Thornton (15-day IL), Ben Brown (60-day IL), Phil Maton (60-day IL), Riley Martin (60-day IL), Hunter Harvey (60-day IL), Porter Hodge (60-day IL), Cade Horton (60-day IL) and Tyler Austin (60-day IL) are all out or unavailable. Kevin Gausman is listed as probable for September 29 despite the shoulder issue.
For San Diego, Casey Mize (15-day IL), Joe Musgrove (60-day IL), Miguel Andujar (10-day IL), Jeremiah Estrada (15-day IL), Ramón Laureano (60-day IL), Luis Rengifo (60-day IL), Lucas Giolito (60-day IL) and Bryan Hoeing (60-day IL) are all out or unavailable. The Padres are missing significant bullpen pieces, which is part of why this game is closer to a coin flip than the home price suggests.
🎯 THE BOTTOM LINE
San Diego wins this game. King at home against a Cubs lineup that loses its power advantage in Petco Park is the defining edge, and the sharps are on the same side. My top plays are the Padres moneyline (-120), Under 7.5 (-120), and Michael King Over 14.5 Outs (-145) — a trio that all points the same direction: a controlled, low-scoring game where San Diego's starter outlasts Chicago's.
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FREE PICK: ALEX BREGMAN OVER 0.5 HITS
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