Rangers vs Astros Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/12/25

TEXAS @ HOUSTON (HOU -125, 6.5)

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Rangers vs Astros Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/12/25

RANGERS @ ASTROS 7/12/25

Game 2 of the Rangers and Astros' weekend series takes place in Houston tonight. The Rangers are far behind the leading Astros in the AL West Division, sitting in fourth place. Tonight’s game features a fantastic pitching matchup as the Rangers send out former NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom (9-2, 2.29) to face Framber Valdez (10-4, 2.90) of the Astros.

The Rangers are hoping to move up in the AL West standings. The Rangers arrive in the last leg of a lengthy road trip, following a four-game series against the Angels in Anaheim. The Rangers are still in the middle of the American League playoff picture. With multiple teams grouped together in the wildcard standings, a strong run could put them squarely back in the race.

After struggling with injuries for a few seasons, deGrom has found his form this season. In 18 starts, he is 9-2, with 10 quality starts. So far, deGrom has a WHIP of 0.91 and an ERA of 2.29. deGrom has struck out 105 and walked 23. He earned the victory in his most recent start against the Angels, despite giving up three runs and five hits in five innings pitched. In his last five starts, deGrom has helped the Rangers win four of them. DeGrom has made eight starts on the road and is 4-0 with an ERA of 2.72.

As the season approaches the All-Star Break, the Houston Astros are once again at the top of the AL West and continue to be the best team in the league. But before this weekend's series against the Rangers, the Astros struggled a bit. This week, the visiting Guardians swept them at home, including a 4-2 defeat on Wednesday. After falling behind 4-0, the Astros rallied for two runs in the eighth inning thanks to doubles from Jose Altuve and Mauricio Dubon. Despite the losses, the Astros still have a seven-game lead over the Mariners in the AL West.

The Astros will rely on Framber Valdez, their ace, tonight. With 18 starts this season, including a staggering 13 quality starts, Valdez is 10-4 overall. His WHIP is 1.15 and his ERA is 2.90. Valdez won the game against the Dodgers in Los Angeles during his most recent start. In six innings, he walked two and struck out seven, giving up seven hits and four runs. Valdez's last five starts have all ended in victories for the Astros. In nine starts, he has an ERA of 1.83 and is 5-1 at home.

This season, Valdez has made just one start against the Rangers, going seven innings while giving up three runs and six hits. The Rangers have been one of the poorer offenses in MLB this season, hitting just .230. The Rangers have been doing it with pitching. They lead MLB in WHIP and their bullpen has the third-best ERA.

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First 5 UNDER 3.5

With a pitching matchup like this, runs should be hard to come by especially early in the game. Neither deGrom nor Valdez allows many baserunners. Both have sub-3.00 ERAs. Both have WHIPs of 1.15 or less. Between them, they have 23 quality starts. Seven of Valdez’s last 10 starts have gone Under the game total. For deGrom, what’s interesting is 4 of his last 5 starts have gone Over the game. That’s because Texas scored 5 or more runs in all five games. That won’t happen tonight against Valdez. Valdez pitched 7 innings against Texas on May 18 and allowed 3 ER. deGrom pitched 8 innings against Houston on May 15 and didn’t allow a single run.