Thunder vs Cavaliers Free Pick, NBA Free Pick & Predictions 1/19/25

J.A. Cavalier
17 hours ago
3 min read

NBA ODDS, NBA PREDICTIONS, NBA PREVIEWS

Thunder vs Cavaliers Free Pick

The Oklahoma City Thunder head to Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse today for a cross-conference showdown with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and this matchup sets up as a clear test of depth, efficiency, and execution. Oklahoma City enters at 35–8 with one of the league’s best road resumes, while Cleveland, sitting at 24–19, looks to protect home court despite being shorthanded.

The Thunder have been the NBA’s most efficient shooting team this season, ranking first in effective field goal percentage. That efficiency starts with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s elite shot creation and is reinforced by Chet Holmgren’s ability to stretch the floor and finish at the rim. Oklahoma City doesn’t just score—they score efficiently, consistently, and from every level of the floor.

Cleveland’s defense has been solid overall, ranking in the middle of the league, but that unit will be severely tested tonight. The Cavaliers will be without Darius Garland, Dean Wade, and Max Strus, removing key playmaking, shooting, and defensive versatility. That absence leaves Cleveland vulnerable against a Thunder team that thrives on attacking mismatches and exploiting space.

The difference in overall team quality is reflected in the advanced metrics. Oklahoma City owns one of the league’s top net ratings, while Cleveland, though competitive, sits a tier below entering this matchup.

Oklahoma City is favored by 6.5 points, and the analytics strongly support that number. The Thunder lead the NBA in points per possession and pair that elite offense with a top-10 defense, making them one of the most complete teams in the league.

Cleveland’s issues are especially concerning on the perimeter. The Cavaliers rank last in three-point defense, a dangerous weakness against a Thunder team that excels at generating clean looks both in transition and in halfcourt sets. Oklahoma City’s ability to force turnovers and convert quickly the other way should overwhelm a Cavaliers team missing its primary offensive engine in Garland.

As the game progresses, Oklahoma City’s depth and pace should allow them to gradually stretch the margin.

With both teams ranking inside the top ten in pace, this matchup profiles as an up-tempo affair. Oklahoma City’s league-leading shooting efficiency pairs with a Cleveland offense that still ranks among the NBA’s top scoring teams, even while dealing with injuries.

The Cavaliers’ struggles defending the three-point line only add fuel to the fire. Against a Thunder squad that pushes tempo and capitalizes on defensive breakdowns, scoring opportunities should come early and often. If Cleveland can hold up offensively at home, this game has all the ingredients of a high-scoring contest.

Do you want more NBA free picks from J.A. Cavalier?!

Free pick — Game Total Over 231.5

Both teams play at a top-10 Pace, and the offensive metrics suggest a high-scoring affair. Oklahoma City leads the league in shooting efficiency, while Cleveland ranks 3rd in points per game (120.0). Cleveland's defense has been particularly porous on the perimeter, ranking dead last (30th) in effective field goal percentage allowed on three-pointers. With both teams ranking in the top 8 for Offensive Rating and the Thunder's tendency to push the tempo, this game is primed to exceed the total.