Cameroon vs Morocco - Friday 1/9/2026
- Neil Mac
- Jan 8
- 2 min read
Bet: Morocco ML or Morocco -0.75 Spread
Stake: 20* (2 units)
Morocco look well placed to assert control here against a Cameroon side that has consistently struggled when stepping up in class.
Morocco rank second in the tournament for expected points, behind only Nigeria, and second for xGA, behind Senegal. They have conceded just once, from the penalty spot, and remain extremely difficult to break down in open play.
This was also true in CAF World Cup qualifying where they were near flawless winning all 8 scoring 22 and conceding just twice.
Cameroon’s only match against a top-tier opponent came against Ivory Coast, where they scraped a 1-1 draw thanks to a highly fortunate looping own goal. Outside of that moment, they offered little sustained threat.
Against South Africa, Cameroon relied on isolated moments rather than control. That lack of structure and sustained pressure is a poor fit against Morocco’s aggressive pressing and compact shape.
Even while sitting deep in a low block, Cameroon conceded 1.95 xGA to South Africa, largely by allowing easy progression through midfield and into dangerous zones. Morocco’s superior technical quality, movement, and tempo should punish similar weaknesses.
Cameroon’s other results need context. Wins over a weak Mozambique side and an underperforming Gabon do little to convince at this level.
Looking further back, Cameroon managed only five wins from ten matches in a relatively kind CAF World Cup qualifying group, underlining their inconsistency.
Pre-tournament disruption and off-field noise have been evident, and while Cameroon have a decent squad, they still look short of what is required to go deep. A quarter-final exit has always felt their ceiling.
Morocco, by contrast, are operating at a different level. Since the start of 2025 they have won 13 of their last 14 matches, with the sole blemish a 1-1 draw against Mali in a game they dominated on xG.
The hosts will also have a major advantage off the pitch, with a sold-out Moulay Abdellah Stadium providing strong home support.
Final Verdict
Cameroon struggle to control games against stronger opponents and continue to concede high-quality chances even when defending deep. That plays directly into Morocco’s strengths, with their pressing, movement, and technical quality ideally suited to breaking down a low block. With home support behind them, Morocco should dictate the game and win by enough to cover the -0.75 handicap.
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