Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, 9/8/26
- rbowe7447
- 7 hours ago
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TEXAS @ SEATTLE (SEA -136, 8))
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RANGERS @ MARINERS 9/8/26
Two teams fighting for their playoff lives collide in Seattle tonight as the Rangers (71-73) and Mariners (67-77) open a critical three-game series. The Astros hold a two-game lead over Texas in the AL West and are six up on Seattle, so this series is essentially a last stand for both clubs — the loser likely watches their postseason hopes evaporate with less than three weeks remaining. The Rangers have owned this season series, winning seven of the first 10 meetings, but the Mariners are desperate at home after dropping three straight to the Athletics before salvaging Sunday's finale.
WHO WINS TONIGHT?
The market leans Seattle, but not overwhelmingly. The Mariners sit at -134 on the moneyline (implied 57.3%) with Texas at +118, and the sharp money agrees — the sharp table gives Seattle a 55.43% win probability versus 44.57% for the Rangers. The prediction models are split, with numberFire projecting a Rangers win at 52.3% while another model leans Seattle at 56.9%.
The pitching matchup is the entire story, and it's a murky one. The Rangers are expected to send left-hander Cody Bradford (0-4, 4.45 ERA) to the mound, while the Mariners counter with right-hander Bryce Miller (4-8, 4.01 ERA). Neither starter has been reliable — Texas has lost Bradford's last five starts, and Seattle lost eight straight Miller starts before he finally beat Boston on Sept. 2.
***NOTE: NEITHER STARTING PITCHER HAS BEEN CONFIRMED AS OF THIS WRITING***
Here's the tension: Bradford has been dreadful all season, posting a 4.45 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP and no wins in four decisions. The Rangers are 1-5 against the spread in his starts and lost the one game where they were moneyline underdogs. Miller, meanwhile, has been nearly as bad — his 4.01 ERA masks a rough second half, and he's allowed a massive 1.98 HR/9 since the All-Star break.
The Mariners' bullpen has been atrocious lately, posting a 6.27 ERA over their last 10 games, and Seattle has scored just 2.8 runs per game against left-handed pitching in that stretch. That's a red flag against Bradford, even a struggling one. But the Rangers' own bullpen isn't much better, and Texas has lost its last two visits to Seattle.
Lean Seattle Mariners moneyline. The sharp money, the home-field advantage, and the fact that Texas has lost Bradford's last five starts all point toward the Mariners. At -134, the price is reasonable for a team that's desperate and at home, but be sure to confirm the pitching matchup.
BEST PLAYER PROPS TONIGHT
Corey Seager Over 0.5 Hits
Seager is the Rangers' most consistent offensive threat, and tonight's matchup against Miller sets up well. He's hitting .227 on the season with 70 hits in 84 games, but his underlying numbers are better than the surface stats suggest — his expected batting average of .248 ranks in the 65th percentile, indicating some bad luck on balls in play.
The recent form is strong. Seager has recorded a hit in 80% of his last five games and 70% of his last 10, and he's been particularly good on the road this season with a 53.49% hit rate in 43 away games. His career numbers against the Mariners are excellent — he's hitting .333 with a 1.0 batting average in six games against Seattle this season, and .833 in 12 career meetings.
The matchup against Miller is the key. Miller has been terrible since the All-Star break, allowing a 1.98 HR/9 to both sides of the plate, and his struggles against left-handed hitters are well documented. Seager, who hits left-handed, is facing a pitcher who has been getting hit hard by everyone lately.
The projection model gives Seager 0.83 expected hits tonight, and his 80% hit rate over the last five games suggests he's seeing the ball well. At -208, you're paying a premium, but this is about as safe a hit prop as exists on tonight's slate.
Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 Hits
Duran has been the Rangers' best hitter all season, and he's been on an absolute tear recently. He's hitting .277 on the season with 84 singles — ranking in the 90th percentile — and 26 doubles that put him in the 91st percentile. His 135 games played show he's an everyday player who gets plenty of opportunities.
The recent form is elite. Duran has recorded a hit in 80% of his last five games and 70% of his last 10, and he's been even better on the road with a 63.24% hit rate in 68 away games. His numbers against Seattle this season are outstanding — he's hitting .875 with a 2.5 total bases average in eight games against the Mariners.
The matchup against Miller is favorable. Duran has been significantly better against right-handed pitching this season, and Miller's struggles since the All-Star break — a 1.98 HR/9 to both sides of the plate — suggest he's hittable. Duran's contact-heavy approach and ability to spray the ball to all fields should serve him well against a pitcher who has been getting hit hard.
The projection model gives Duran 1.38 expected hits tonight, well above the 0.5 threshold. At -185, it’s pricey, but it is a strong play for a player who has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball.
Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 Hits
Raleigh has been the Mariners' most consistent offensive weapon down the stretch, and he's coming off a strong series against the Athletics where he drove in the winning run Sunday. He's hitting just .183 on the season, but his recent form tells a different story — he's recorded a hit in 100% of his last five games and 80% of his last 10.
The home splits are encouraging. Raleigh is hitting .203 at T-Mobile Park with a 55.36% hit rate in 56 home games, and he's been even better against the Rangers this season — hitting .556 with a 1.0 total bases average in nine games against Texas. His career numbers against Seattle's division rival are strong, with a .769 hit rate in 13 career meetings.
The matchup against Bradford is the key. Bradford has been dreadful all season with a 4.45 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, and he's been particularly vulnerable to right-handed hitters. Raleigh, who hits right-handed, is facing a left-hander who has struggled to keep runners off base all season.
The projection model gives Raleigh 1.2 expected hits tonight, well above the 0.5 threshold. At -167, this is a reasonable price for a player who has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last two weeks.
J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 Hits
Crawford has been on a tear recently, recording a hit in 100% of his last five games and 80% of his last 10. He's hitting just .225 on the season, but his recent form suggests he's seeing the ball as well as he has all year.
The home splits are solid. Crawford is hitting .218 at T-Mobile Park with a 56.25% hit rate in 48 home games, and he's been even better against the Rangers this season — hitting .556 with a 0.78 total bases average in nine games against Texas. His career numbers against Seattle's division rival are strong, with an .846 hit rate in 13 career meetings.
The matchup against Bradford is favorable. Bradford has been dreadful against right-handed hitters all season, and Crawford, who hits left-handed, should see plenty of hittable pitches. The projection model gives Crawford 0.78 expected hits tonight, and his 100% hit rate over the last five games suggests he's locked in.
At -159, this is a reasonable price for a player who has been one of the most consistent hitters in the Mariners' lineup over the last two weeks.
MATCHUP NOTES
Mariners' desperation: Seattle's playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. The Mariners lost three straight to the Athletics before salvaging Sunday's finale, and they're six games behind the Astros in the AL West with less than three weeks remaining.
"There's not really much (left) to say," Cal Raleigh said after Sunday's game. "It's put your best foot forward, play as hard as you can, try to win as many games as you can for the rest of the season and whatever happens, happens."
Rangers' belief: Texas dropped two straight at home to Tampa Bay before Jake Burger hit a pair of homers Sunday in an 8-6 victory.
"I think there's a lot of belief," Burger said. "I think when you lose those two games, it's easy to hit the panic button a little bit. But I think there's a lot of belief in this clubhouse amongst the guys." The Rangers are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Mariners but have lost their last two visits to Seattle.
Bradford's struggles: The left-hander is 0-4 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season, and Texas has lost his last five starts. The Rangers are 1-5 against the spread in his starts and lost the one game where they were moneyline underdogs. Bradford has been particularly vulnerable to right-handed hitters, which bodes well for Raleigh, Crawford, and Canzone.
Miller's second-half collapse: The right-hander has been terrible since the All-Star break, allowing a massive 1.98 HR/9 to both sides of the plate. Seattle lost eight straight Miller starts before he finally beat Boston on Sept. 2, and his 4.01 ERA masks how hittable he's been lately.
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FREE PICK: F3 UNDER 2.5 (Bradford & Miller must start)
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