Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, PGA Picks, PGA Free Picks, PGA Predictions - The Open 7/15/26 ⛳
- Luke Shuey
- Jul 15
- 2 min read
⛳️ The Open Championship – Outright Winners FREE PICKS ⛳️
Rory McIlroy +850 (10*)
Rory is exactly the type of player I’m willing to back at a single-digit outright price because the profile checks every box for Royal Birkdale.
After finally ending his major drought, McIlroy has looked like a player with renewed confidence rather than someone playing with pressure. He’s one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world, and while you don’t NEED length off the tee at Royal Birkdale, watch Rory cut some corners on doglegs to have a short wedge in his hand: still a weapon. The baked-out fairways should reward elite ball strikers who can control trajectory while still taking advantage of extra rollout.
Statistically, Rory continues to rank among the PGA Tour’s elite in:
✅ Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
✅ Total Driving
✅ Birdie Average
✅ Scoring Average
✅ Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Those are exactly the categories that historically separate Open Championship winners.
His Open Championship resume is also elite. Rory already owns a Claret Jug and has posted multiple recent top-7 finishes in this championship, including a T4 the last time The Open was played at Royal Birkdale.
Perhaps most importantly, McIlroy has openly said Birkdale is one of his favorite Open venues because of its fairness and shot values. That’s not something I ignore when evaluating major championship contenders.
At +850, you’re paying for one of the highest ceilings in the field—but if anyone has the complete game to overpower this golf course while handling changing links conditions, it’s Rory.
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Russell Henley +5000 (5*)
This is the value ticket.
Henley is the American nobody wants to talk about. His game is quiet. He isn’t going to wow anyone with distance, but Open Championships aren’t always won by the longest hitter—they’re won by players who consistently keep the ball in play, control their irons, and avoid big numbers.
That’s exactly Henley’s game.
Few players on Tour are more consistent with: Driving Accuracy, Strokes Gained (Approach), Greens in Regulation, and Bogey Avoidance
Those traits become incredibly valuable on links golf where patience usually beats aggression.
Henley has quietly become one of the most complete iron players in professional golf over the past two seasons. If Birkdale plays as firm and strategic as expected, precision into greens will matter far more than simply overpowering the course.
At 50/1, you don’t need Henley to dominate the field statistically—you need four disciplined rounds with an elite putting week.
We’ve seen plenty of Open Championships produce winners who simply avoided mistakes while others tried forcing birdies. Henley fits that blueprint better than most players in his price range.
The upside here is tremendous.
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
