Orioles vs Braves Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/4/25

BALTIMORE @ ATLANTA (ATL -180, 8.5)

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Orioles vs Braves Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/4/25

ORIOLES @ BRAVES 7/4/25

Happy 4th of July from the team at YLose! It’s Friday and that means it’s also ATM Day. We start off this weekend with Game 1 of a three-game series between the Orioles and Braves. RHP Charlie Morton (4-7, 5.63 ERA) returns to Atlanta for the start and Spencer Strider (3-6, 3.86) takes the mound for the Braves.

The Braves have dropped six of their last eight games and lost two of three against the visiting Los Angeles Angels over the last three days. The Orioles have lost seven of their last eleven games and suffered two losses in a three-game road series against the Texas Rangers this week. The Orioles defeated the Braves 2-1 in Baltimore last year in their series.

Morton made his major league debut with the Braves in 2008 after being chosen by Atlanta in the third round of the 2002 draft. He returned to the team in 2021 and played for the Braves until 2024, during which time he won 45 games. In January, Morton became a free agent and signed with the Orioles.

Morton has not pitched since June 24 due to mild tendinitis in his right elbow. In his last nine appearances (six starts), he has a 2.68 ERA and is on a four-decision winning streak. Morton's most recent appearance was against Texas, where he pitched five innings, gave up three runs on four hits, two walks, and three strikeouts, earning him a no-decision.

As a member of the Tampa Bay Rays, Morton last faced the Braves in 2020. In his seven career starts against Atlanta, he is 3-2 with a 3.53 ERA.

Strider has pitched to a 2.25 ERA in his last four starts and won three of them. On Sunday, he gave up just two runs in seven innings but lost 2-1 to the Philadelphia Phillies. Against Baltimore in 2023, Strider made his only career start against the Orioles and recorded a no-decision after giving up two runs in five innings and striking out ten.

The Atlanta offense will be a challenge for Morton. In Thursday's 5-1 loss to the Angels, Jurickson Profar hit a solo homer in the ninth inning, sparing the Braves from their fourth shutout in the last seven games. Since coming back from an 80-game suspension, Profar has hit a home run in each of the two games he’s played.

Matt Olson, the first baseman for the Braves, reached base on Thursday after hitting a single, marking the longest active streak in the major leagues at 33 games in a row. Freddie Freeman's 33-game run in 2020 was the longest such run by an Atlanta player. In 2002, Gary Sheffield set a new franchise record of fifty-two games.

On the night before the series, the Orioles made a number of roster changes. Baltimore promoted right-handers Corbin Martin and Yennier Cano from Triple-A Norfolk while they had Thursday off. Due to shoulder inflammation, they placed left-hander Keegan Akin on the 15-day injured list and assigned right-hander Matt Bowman.

Outfielder Tyler O'Neill, who has been sidelined since mid-May due to a left shoulder impingement, is anticipated to be activated by the Orioles on Friday. At the time of his injury, O'Neill was hitting .188 with two home runs and 10 RBIs.

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COACH RICK FREE PICK:

GAME TOTAL UNDER 8.5

Charlie Morton returns to Atlanta and you know he’ll be jacked to go against his former team. Strider is starting to regain his form and has won 3 of his last 4 starts. He pitched 7 innings and allowed just 2 earned runs against the Phillies in his last start, but he didn’t get any run production and lost to the Phillies 2-1. Four of his last five starts have gone Under the total. Morton’s ERA in June was 2.88 and Baltimore won 4 of his 5 starts. Five of his last seven starts have gone Under the total. The Under has cashed in 4 of the Braves last 5 games and in 8 of the last 11 between these two teams.