Phillies vs Braves Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 6/28/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- Jun 28
- 3 min read
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA (ATL -160, 8.5)
MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
PHILLIES @ BRAVES 6/28/25
In their previous series, the Phillies were swept by the Houston Astros, managing just one run in the process. The Phillies come into this game with an overall record of 48-34 and a 22-20 road record. That comes after the Phillies took the first game of the series 13-0.
Philly has a .727 OPS, and their offense is ranked eighth in the MLB in scoring averaging 4.67 runs per game. Jesús Luzardo will make the start today for the Phillies. This season, he has a 4.08 ERA and is 7-3. The Phillies have won 2 of his last 3 starts. He pitched 6.2 innings against the New York Mets in his most recent start, giving up 0 ER, 0 HR, 3 hits, 1 BB while striking out seven.
The Braves have a losing record going into this series and split their previous four-game series with the New York Mets. They have a 22-15 home record and an overall record of 37-44 after last night’s loss. The Braves rank 19th in MLB in scoring and has a team OPS of .698 OPS.
Spencer Schwellenbach will start for Atlanta tonight. This season, he has a 3.21 ERA and is 6-4. Atlanta has won his last three starts in a row. He pitched seven innings against the New York Mets in his most recent start, giving up two earned runs, one home run, one walk, and four strikeouts on four hits. With Schwellenbach taking the mound, the Braves are the favorite.
With a 47-34 overall record and a commanding lead in the NL East, the Phillies have played well most of this season. With a 22–20 road record this season, they have also been a strong road team. The Braves, on the other hand, have struggled this season. Their 37-43 overall record puts them in the middle of the NL East. However, with a 22-15 home record, they have appeared much better in their own ballpark.
The Braves had a horrible start to the season, but they have now improved to 6-4 in their last ten games and are playing well as they attempt to regain their spot in the NL Wild Card race. The Phillies are coming off a poor series in which they were swept by the Astros and their offense was shut down entirely. They are only 5-5 in their last 10 games.
Luzardo, who is pitching for the Phillies in this game, has been giving up runs this season despite looking good with his seven victories. Even if Luzardo pitches well, the Phillies offense has been a major issue lately, and even though he is 7-3 with a 4.08 ERA and is coming off a great start in which he gave up no runs, don’t be surprised if he gives up a few here.
The Braves have Schwellenbach on the mound, and he has performed well this season. He hasn’t allowed a lot of runs in his starts and is 6-4 with a 3.21 ERA. The team has won three straight games that he started, and he only allowed two earned runs in his most recent appearance.
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COACH RICK FREE PICK:
Game Total Under 8.5 Runs
After last night’s 13-0 Phillies win, Schwellenbach will tame the Phillies bats. He has pretty good numbers against current Phillies hitters. In four starts against Philly, he is 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 24.1 innings. All four of those games went Under the total too with scores of 4-2, 3-2, 3-2, and 5-1. Luzardo stumbled a few times this season but, for the most part, has pitched well. He did face Atlanta early in the season and pitched 6 innings of 1-run ball. He has a career 3.89 ERA against the Braves. Outside of last night, the Phillies have seen the total go Under in 4 of their last 5 games. Atlanta has cashed on the Under in 7 of their last 10 and in 6 of their last 8 as the favorite.
