Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/3/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/3/26

PITTSBURGH @ WASHINGTON (WSH -143, 9.5)

MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK MLB PREVIEWS

PIRATES @ NATIONALS 7/3/26

The Pittsburgh Pirates, who beat Philadelphia 6-1 yesterday, travel to Nationals Park to take on Washington in a matchup featuring two right-handed starters with very different recent trajectories. Mitch Keller takes the mound for Pittsburgh against Foster Griffin for Washington. With a high total of 9.5 and a hitter-friendly park factor of 102 at Nationals Park, the offensive environment is primed for action.

The Nationals enter this contest as home favorites, and the statistical profile supports a Washington victory. While the head-to-head history is deadlocked at 2-2 over the last four meetings, the pitching matchup and home-field advantage tilt the scales. 

Griffin has been exceptionally reliable in high-leverage situations, and the Nationals' lineup has shown a higher ceiling for early-inning production, averaging 0.77 runs in the first inning compared to Pittsburgh's 0.65. The Nationals have been No. 1 or No. 2 in scoring for much of the season. Heading into tonight’s game, they rank second averaging 5.34 runs per game.

Keller has struggled historically against this Washington roster, allowing a .304 career batting average and a .342 wOBA across 103 plate appearances. Key Nationals hitters like CJ Abrams (.438 BvP BA) and Nasim Nuñez (.500 BvP BA) have seen Keller very well. Washington's ability to put the ball in play against Keller (who has a modest 17.5% K rate against them) should lead to sustained pressure.

GAME TOTAL PREDICTIONS

Nationals Park is currently ranked 5th in overall park factors (102), specifically boosting runs (104) and hits (103). The Nationals rank No. 2 in Over percentage this season - 52-32-4 O/U record (61.9%). Washington is No. 1 in home Over percentage (70%) with an O/U record of 28-12-2 at Nationals Park.

Both starting pitchers have career summaries that suggest vulnerability to the current lineups. Keller’s career .304 BA allowed to Washington and Griffin’s .333 BA allowed to Pittsburgh indicate that both offenses should find success.

The Pirates' offense is coming off a 6-run performance yesterday and features hot hitters like Esmerlyn Valdez, who has cleared his 1.5 HRR line in each of his last 5 games. On the Washington side, Luis García Jr. has been a run-producing machine, hitting the Over on 1.5 HRR in 4 of his last 5 games. With both teams showing high hit rates on offensive props recently, the Over 9.5 is the definitive play.

NRFI?

Despite the high game total, the NRFI (No Runs First Inning) presents significant value based on starting pitcher trends. Keller has been an NRFI specialist this season, going 12-3 (80% Under 0.5 Runs) in the first inning. Over the last three seasons, he has stayed under the 0.5 first-inning run mark in 79 of 110 games (71.8%).

Griffin matches this efficiency, also posting a 12-3 NRFI record (80%) in 2026. When these two rates are combined, the estimated NRFI probability sits at ~57.5%, which aligns well with the current market price. While the park is hitter-friendly, both pitchers have demonstrated the ability to navigate the top of the order effectively in their opening frames.

TOP PLAYER PROPS

Esmerlyn Valdez is the hottest hitter on the slate for the Pirates. He has cleared this 1.5 HRR line in each of his last 5 games, averaging a massive 4.2 HRR in that span. Even over a 15-game sample, he maintains a 60% hit rate. As a visitor, his success continues with a 62.5% hit rate. Facing a lefty in Foster Griffin, Valdez is in a prime position to continue his multi-hit and run-producing ways.

Luis García Jr. has been the engine of the Nationals' offense lately. He has hit the Over 1.5 HRR in 4 of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 10 games. His recent average of 5.0 HRR over the last 5 games is nearly triple the current line. He also has extensive experience against Keller, with 19 career plate appearances and a .278 BA, ensuring he won't be fooled by Keller's arsenal.

While Keller may give up some hits, he remains a consistent strikeout producer. He has cleared 3.5 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts and 12 of his 17 starts this season. He averages 4.29 strikeouts per game, providing a healthy cushion over this low line. Nationals Park suppresses strikeouts slightly (94 factor), but Keller's 71.43% hit rate on the road suggests he can maintain his floor in this environment.

Bryan Reynolds is the model of consistency for Pittsburgh. He has recorded at least one hit in 8 of his last 10 games and 87% of his last 15 games. While the price is steep, it reflects a player who is averaging 1.27 hits over his last 15 outings. He is the anchor of the Pirates' lineup and a safe addition to any parlay.

NEWS & INJURY IMPACT

The Pirates are missing key offensive spark plug Oneil Cruz (10-Day IL) and Spencer Horwitz (10-Day IL). This puts more pressure on Bryan Reynolds and Nick Gonzales to carry the load.

Washington's pitching depth is tested with Josiah Gray and Trevor Williams on the 60-Day IL. Foster Griffin needs to provide length today to protect a bullpen that has seen significant usage.

Keller has struggled with efficiency against Washington in the past, but his recent form (4.4 K average over last 15) shows he is finding ways to miss bats even when runners are on base. He’s been inconsistent though, going 1-3 in June with a 6.23 ERA.

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FREE PICK: WASHINGTON ML

Foster Griffin gives the Nationals a major starting pitching advantage. He is 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA and the Nats are 12-5 in his starts this season. In the month of June, Griffin was outstanding, going 2-0 with a 1.15 ERA. WSH won 4 of his 5 starts during the month and they’ve won 7 of his last 8. Griffin started a game against Pittsburgh back on April 16. He pitched 5.1 innings, gave up 8 hits and 4 ER, but the Nationals went on to win that game 8-7. Mitch Keller starts for PIT and while the Nats are No. 1 in MLB vs. LHP, Keller, a RHP, has been extremely inconsistent. In June, he went 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA. He has 8 starts against the Nats. The most recent was last season - 11.1 IP and 5 ER combined. Pittsburgh lost both games. In fact, they’ve lost the last 6 straight vs. WSH when Keller has started. The last time the Nats beat Keller was in 2023. 

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