Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/4/26
- rbowe7447
- 1 day ago
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MIAMI @ ATHLETICS (MIA -131, 11)
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MARLINS @ ATHLETICS 7/4/26
The Miami Marlins and Oakland Athletics continue their series tonight at Sutter Health Park. Miami is coming off a dominant 12-5 victory yesterday, but tonight’s matchup features a fascinating pitching duel between Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara and Athletics starter Aaron Civale. With both teams dealing with significant injuries, the value tonight lies in specific player performance trends and the starting pitching mismatch.
The Marlins hold a significant edge on the mound tonight with Alcantara. While the Athletics have shown flashes of offensive life, they are currently decimated by injuries to key contributors like Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof, and Tyler Soderstrom. Miami’s offense, led by the hot bats of Otto Lopez and Owen Caissie, proved yesterday they can handle Oakland's pitching. With Alcantara's ability to pitch deep into games, Miami is well-positioned to secure another road win.
Alcantara remains one of the most durable and effective starters in the league. His ability to limit damage and eat innings is critical for a Marlins team dealing with a taxed bullpen. He went 6-0 with a 3.35 ERA in six starts in the month of June.
Over his last 5 games, Alcantara has averaged 20.0 pitcher outs, hitting the Over on tonight's 17.5 Outs line in 80% of those contests. For the season, he has cleared this mark in 77.78% of his 18 starts. He has faced the current Athletics roster 56 times, maintaining a respectable .288 average against. He has historically handled Joey Meneses well, striking him out 3 times in 10 plate appearances. Alcantara’s season mean of 19.28 outs per game suggests he is highly likely to pitch at least into the 6th or 7th inning tonight.
Civale faces a Marlins lineup that put up 12 runs last night. While he has been serviceable, his recent trends suggest he struggles to keep runners off the basepaths. Civale has allowed an average of 7.2 hits over his last 5 games, hitting the Over on his 5.5 hits allowed line in 80% of his last 10 starts.
TOP PLAYER PROPS
Alcantara Over 17.5 Outs is the most statistically backed play of the night. Alcantara is a workhorse who has cleared this line in 80% of his last 20 games. With Oakland missing Rooker and Gelof, Alcantara should navigate this lineup efficiently to reach the 6th inning.
Miami’s bats are clicking, and Civale has been a hit magnet recently. He has surrendered at least 6 hits in 8 of his last 10 games. Given Miami's 12-run explosion yesterday, they are seeing the ball well enough to tag Civale for at least 6 hits tonight. Back Civale Over 5.5 Hits (see tonight’s free pick).
Owen Caissie has been incredibly consistent for the Marlins. He has recorded at least one hit in 80% of his last 15 games. He also went 1-for-1 in his only career matchup against Oakland pitching earlier this season, showing he can handle this staff.
Otto Lopez is currently the engine of the Marlins' offense. Over his last 5 games, he is averaging 3.0 total bases per game, hitting the Over 1.5 Total Bases in 60% of that span. He was dominant in his only matchup against Oakland this year, recording 2 total bases.
NEWS & INJURIES
The narrative for tonight is defined by Oakland's depleted roster. The Athletics are missing their primary power source in Brent Rooker and their most promising young infielder in Zack Gelof. This places an immense burden on Shea Langeliers, who is currently listed as Day-To-Day. If Langeliers is limited or out, the A's offense becomes one-dimensional, playing right into Sandy AlcantaraSandy Alcantara's hands.
Miami is not without its own issues, specifically in the bullpen with Andrew Nardi and Anthony Bender on the IL. However, the Marlins' strategy tonight will clearly be to let Alcantara go as long as possible to avoid those middle-relief gaps. Offensively, the Marlins are healthy where it matters, with Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez providing excellent table-setting for the middle of the order.
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FREE PICK: AARON CIVALE OVER 5.5 HITS
Civale has given up at least 6 hits in each of his last 4 starts - 6, 6, 9, and 9 hits in those games. He’s allowed at least 6 hits in 8 of his last 10 starts and 9 of 14 for the season. The Marlins average 8.3 hits per game and ripped 11 last night while scoring 12 runs. The Marlins, who played their last series in Colorado, now have 3 double-digit runs totals in their last 5 games. Expect them to get 6 hits off of Civale, who has gone Over 5.5 Hits in 5 of his 6 home starts this season.
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