Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/9/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 7/9/26

LA ANGELS @ TEXAS (TEX -168, 7)

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ANGELS @ RANGERS 7/7/26

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The Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers meet tonight at Globe Life Field for an AL West showdown. The Angels are coming off a massive 13-1 victory in yesterday's contest, but they face a tough task tonight against Rangers ace Nathan Eovaldi. Texas, meanwhile, looks to stabilize their rotation behind Eovaldi as they navigate a significant injury list that includes key arms like Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bradford.

The Rangers are the definitive choice tonight, primarily due to the starting pitching advantage held by Eovaldi. Eovaldi has been a workhorse for Texas, and his historical dominance over this Angels roster is noteworthy. He has held current Angels hitters to a collective .238 batting average over 114 plate appearances. While he has struggled slightly at home recently (83.3% over on 1.5 earned runs at home), his ability to generate strikeouts (19.3% K-rate vs. LAA) and limit walks (9.6% BB-rate) gives Texas a high floor.

The Angels counter with Reid Detmers, who has been nothing short of spectacular against the Rangers in the past. Detmers holds current Texas hitters to a microscopic .059 batting average over 54 plate appearances, including a 48.1% strikeout rate. However, the Angels' offense is currently missing several key pieces, including Anthony Rendon and Yoán Moncada, and they are relying on a "mid-level" lineup that has struggled for consistency despite yesterday's outburst. With Jacob Latz emerging as an All-Star caliber closer for Texas (1.71 ERA, 2.63 FIP), the Rangers have the superior bullpen to close out a tight game.

GAME TOTAL PREDICTIONS

Globe Life Field is playing as a significant pitcher's park this season, ranking 28th in overall park factor (93). It suppresses runs (86 factor) and hits (94 factor) significantly compared to league averages. When you combine this environment with two starting pitchers who have historically dominated the opposing lineups, the Under becomes the most logical play.

Reid Detmers' 48.1% strikeout rate against Texas suggests he will rack up quick outs, while Eovaldi’s veteran presence should keep the Angels' bats in check after their 13-run performance yesterday—a classic "hangover" spot for an offense. Furthermore, the Rangers' bullpen, led by the newly minted All-Star Latz, has been elite at suppressing runs in high-leverage situations.

TOP PLAYER PROPS

Mike Trout is highly motivated as he approaches the All-Star break, especially with the game being played near his hometown. Over his last 5 games, he has hit the Over 0.5 Hits in 100% of contests, averaging 1.4 hits per game. He also has a 100% hit rate against the Rangers in 2026 (4-for-4). While Eovaldi is tough, Trout’s .235 career average and 8 hits against him suggest he’ll find a way to reach base.

Denzer Guzman has been a revelation for the Angels' lineup. He has hit the Over 0.5 Hits in 9 of his last 10 games and is a perfect 2-for-2 against the Rangers this season. His performance as a visitor is even more impressive, hitting the over in 90.9% of games played away from home. He is seeing the ball exceptionally well right now.

While I like the Rangers to win, Eovaldi does tend to give up hits. He has allowed over 4.5 hits in 4 of his last 5 starts and 71% of his starts this season. In his lone matchup against the Angels in 2026, he allowed 5 hits. The Angels' lineup, even when not scoring in bunches, tends to put the ball in play against him.

NOTES & MATCHUP NEWS

Rangers closer Jacob Latz was a surprise All-Star selection, boasting a 1.71 ERA and a 22.4% K-BB rate. His ability to pitch multiple innings (five 2-inning saves this year) makes him a weapon the Angels cannot match.

The Rangers are missing Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, and Josh Jung (Day-to-Day), which has sapped their offensive power. The Angels are equally beat up, missing Anthony Rendon and Yoán Moncada.

Detmers has been a "Ranger Killer," holding current Texas bats to a .059 average. However, Eovaldi's 70.6% season hit rate on the over for 1.5 earned runs suggests the Angels will get on the board.

Keep in mind that Globe Life Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league this year (Rank 28/30). That heavily supports the Under 7.5.

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FREE PICK: NATHAN EOVALDI OVER 4.5 HITS

Eovaldi is an outstanding pitcher. His ERA has creeped up just above 4.00, but he went 3-1 in June and Texas has won 5 of his last 6 starts. The one thing Eovaldi does allow are hits. He’s given up at least 5 hits in 4 of his last 5 starts. He’s allowed 5 or more hits in 12 of his 17 starts this season. His walk rate is only 5.5 percent and his WHIP sits at 1.17. While he gives up hits, he is able to get out of jams. That said, in his last 3 starts against the Rangers, he’s allowed 5, 6, and 5 hits. The Rangers are missing some key bats and had just 3 hits last night. But, remember, they did have 11 hits in Game 1 of this series.

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