Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions, 9/13/26
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS (DAL -3, 48.5)
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COWBOYS @ GIANTS 9/13/26
Sunday Night Football from MetLife Stadium, and this one has a little bit of everything: a Dallas team that quietly rebuilt its defense, a Giants team debuting John Harbaugh as head coach, and a Malik Nabers injury cloud hanging over the whole thing. The market has Dallas as a field-goal favorite with the total sitting at 47.5, and the sharp money is firmly on the Cowboys.
The sharp win-probability table gives Dallas a 60.33% edge to win outright, and the spread market is nearly a coin flip at 50.23% Dallas / 49.77 Giants against the number. The total leans slightly Over at 50.8%. That tells you the smart money sees a Dallas win, but not necessarily a comfortable cover.
GAME PLAYS
1. Dallas Cowboys Moneyline
This is the anchor play of the night, and the case is overwhelming. Dallas has won 9 of the last 10 meetings straight up, and the head-to-head history is a bloodbath: over those 10 games, the Cowboys have averaged 30.9 points while holding the Giants to 18.5. Dak Prescott is 14-3 all-time against the Giants, and he's won 14 consecutive games he's started and finished against them. The Cowboys are also a perfect 8-0 all-time in Week 1 primetime games against the Giants, including a 40-0 demolition at MetLife in 2023.
The roster math backs it up. Dallas fielded the NFL's No. 1 offense in total yards last season (416.4 per game) and the No. 1 passing offense (290.8 per game), and they've kept that core intact — Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Javonte Williams. Meanwhile, the Giants went 4-13 last season and are breaking in an entirely new coaching staff under Harbaugh. New systems in Week 1 against a team that's beaten you nine of ten times is a rough spot.
The one wrinkle: Malik Nabers is officially questionable as he works back from a torn ACL. He practiced fully all week but admitted he's weighing whether he's truly ready. If he sits or plays on a pitch count, Dallas's edge grows even larger.
2. Dallas Cowboys -3 — Best Price: BetRivers -107
If you want a little less juice than the moneyline, the spread is the sharper play. The line opened at -2.5 and has been bet up to -3 across the board — that's the market telling you where the money is going. And there's a stat that jumps off the page: the Cowboys' last 14 wins over the Giants (in 15 meetings) have all come by at least 3 points, and all seven of their wins last season were by at least 3 points. This isn't a team that wins ugly by a field goal.
The matchup itself is a mismatch on paper. Dallas's offense should move the ball at will against a Giants defense that allowed 390.8 yards per game (28th) and a league-worst 5.31 yards per carry last season. New York traded away Dexter Lawrence to Cincinnati and did little to patch the run defense, which sets up Javonte Williams — coming off 1,201 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns — for a big night. Establish the run, and Brian Burns and Abdul Carter can't pin their ears back on every down.
The risk here is Dallas's own defense, which was historically bad last year — 32nd in points allowed (30.1 per game) and 32nd in passing yards allowed (280.4 per game). But that's exactly why they hired Christian Parker and turned over 46.2% of their defensive snaps, adding Rashan Gary, Von Miller, Caleb Downs and Quinnen Williams. If the new-look unit is even league-average, Dallas covers this comfortably.
TOP PLAYER PROPS
George Pickens Over 4.5 Receptions
Pickens is the prop I feel best about on the Dallas side. He averaged over five receptions per game in 2025, finishing with 93 catches for 1,429 yards and nine scores on a whopping 137 targets. He had at least five grabs in 11 of his 17 games, including a five-catch, 68-yard, one-score game against these Giants in Week 2.
The matchup is tailor-made. New York was 16th in EPA/Pass last season and allowed 3,908 passing yards, and with CeeDee Lamb commanding attention on the other side, Pickens should see single coverage all night. His form supports it too — he's cleared 4.5 receptions in 70% of his last 10 games and 66.67% of his last 15, and he's hit the over in 55.56% of his road games while averaging 5.0 grabs away from home. Against a Giants secondary that's still sorting out its cornerback rotation, I'll take the over.
Cam Skattebo Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
The Giants are going to run the ball — that's the whole identity Harbaugh is building. He brought in fullback Patrick Ricard and drafted Francis Mauigoa in the top 10 specifically to build a physical rushing attack, and Skattebo is the starting running back. The Giants ran the ball 511 times last season (2nd-most in the NFL) and averaged 129.1 rushing yards per game (5th)
Skattebo's form is excellent: he's cleared 49.5 rushing yards in 80% of his last five games, averaging 61.6 yards in that window, and he's a perfect 100% at home, where he's averaged 79.0 rushing yards. His projection of 52.45 yards sits above the line. And the matchup is the softest possible — Dallas allowed 125.5 rushing yards per game (23rd) and 4.72 yards per carry (26th) last season. If the Giants are going to keep this close, it runs through Skattebo.
Theo Johnson Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
This is the quiet value play of the night. Johnson has cleared 15.5 receiving yards in 80% of his last five games, 90% of his last 10, and 85% of his last 20, averaging 42.8 yards over his last five. His projection of 17.61 yards clears the line, and he's been a reliable target in the Giants' new-look offense.
Here's the kicker: against Dallas specifically, Johnson hit the over 100% of the time in 2025, averaging 34.0 yards in that meeting. The Cowboys allowed the most passing yards in the NFL last season (280.4 per game) and the most passing touchdowns (35). With the Giants likely to lean on tight ends and multi-tight-end sets — the depth chart suggests more 12 and 13 personnel — Johnson should see plenty of work underneath.
Theo Johnson Anytime Touchdown
If you want a leverage play, this is it. Johnson has scored in 60% of his last five games and 62.5% of his games for the season, with a touchdown projection of 0.75 in this matchup. At +500, the market is pricing him at just 16.7% implied probability — and the model flags this as a +9.85% expected value play, one of the highest EV figures on the entire board.
The logic is simple: Dallas was 32nd in touchdowns allowed (59) and 32nd in touchdown percentage allowed (5.66%) last season. If the Giants move the ball at all, red-zone opportunities will be there, and Johnson is a big-bodied tight end who's been a consistent scoring threat. Small stake, big payoff.
INJURY WATCH
The biggest variable in this game is Malik Nabers, who is officially questionable despite practicing fully all week. He's been candid that he won't risk his career coming back from the torn ACL, so there's a real chance he's limited or out. If he sits, the Giants' passing game loses its top weapon and Dallas's path to a cover gets much cleaner.
Dallas is without All-Pro left guard Tyler Smith, who's on injured reserve after thumb surgery. T.J. Bass steps in — he appeared in 16 games with five starts last season. The Cowboys still have Cooper Beebe, Tyler Booker, Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele up front, so the line should hold, but it's worth noting for the run game.
The bottom line: this is a Dallas game to lose. The history, the roster, the sharp money and the matchup all point the same direction. The Giants' best path is a heavy dose of Skattebo and Dart's legs keeping it close into the fourth quarter — which is exactly why I like the Skattebo and Johnson props as the counterweight to the Cowboys game plays.
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FREE PICK: THEO JOHNSON OVER 15.5 RECEIVING YARDS
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