Royals vs Padres Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 6/21/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- Jun 21
- 3 min read
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO (SD -150, 7.5)
MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
ROYALS @ PADRES 6/21/25
The Kansas City Royals got their fourth win in a row on Friday night with a 6-5 win over San Diego in the first game of their weekend series. They had just finished a three-game road series against the Rangers. After losing six straight home games to the Athletics and the New York Yankees, the Royals swept the Rangers and are off to a great start against the Padres.
The Royals were fourth in the majors in terms of runs allowed (3.60) and 29th in terms of runs scored (3.37 per game). The Royals' offense has been weak all season. In 400 at-bats over the last two weeks, the Royals have 14 home runs and a slash line of .233/.289/.390.
Noah Cameron is anticipated to take the mound at Petco Park tonight. The 25-year-old rookie southpaw has made seven starts (42.1 innings pitched) in 2025 and is 2-2 with a stellar 1.91 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. In a no-decision game against the Athletics last Sunday, Cameron pitched five scoreless frames while striking out seven batters and giving up four hits and a walk.
In their last eight games, the San Diego Padres have just two wins. In order to avoid a sweep in a four-game series in Los Angeles, the Padres defeated the Dodgers 5-3 on Thursday despite being +225 road underdogs.
On Friday morning, San Diego was only half a game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers for the last wild card in the American League. The Padres ranked 10th in the MLB in terms of runs allowed (3.93), and 18th in terms of runs scored (4.22 per game).
Right-hander Dylan Cease will start on Saturday for the Padres. He has a 2-6 record with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 15 starts (80.2 IP) so far this season. In a 6-3 loss to the Dodgers last Monday, he was terrible, giving up six earned runs on eight hits and a walk in five innings.
Cease has made 16 career starts against Kansas City and is 5-4 with a 3.50 ERA. In a no-decision game against the Royals in 2024, he pitched 5.1 innings of three-run, five-hit ball. With four doubles, a triple, and two home runs against Cease, the current Royals are 24-for-91.
The Padres have struggled against left-handed pitchers over the past ten days (.419 OPS and 16 wRC+ in 65 plate appearances), and they are missing CF Jackson Merrill due to a concussion. Cameron has been pitching very well for Kansas City. The Royals are familiar with Cease, who has given up three or more runs in five of his last six games. Cease played for the White Sox in the AL Central for five years.
The Padres bullpen has also been inconsistent lately. Over the past ten days, San Diego relievers have recorded a 5.53 ERA and 1.77 WHIP, compared to the Royals' pen's 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
Get free MLB Picks and MLB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2025 MLB schedule from JA Cavalier, one of the industry's premier expert MLB handicappers. J.A. Cavalier has been bringing the MLB betting community the MLB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best MLB moneyline and run line odds and game totals.
COACH RICK FREE PICK:
GAME TOTAL UNDER 7.5
Cease and Cameron are two outstanding pitchers that have the ability to take over a game. Cameron is having an outstanding rookie season - 2-2, 1.91 ERA, 0.90 WHIP. He’s allowed 0 or 1 earned run in 6 of his 7 starts this season. He faces a Padres lineup that has been scoring some runs lately, but they have just 2 wins in their last 10 games. Cease is coming off a horrible start last time out, but it was against the Dodgers. Most pitchers struggle against LA. Cease does pitch better at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. He’s 2-2 with an even 3.00 ERA and he has 53 strikeouts in 39 innings. Both bullpens are solid as well. Four of the last six Royals games have gone Under the total and the Royals are one of the top Under teams in baseball (31-44-1). The Padres trend Under as well (32-41-2, 14-19-1 at home).
